Opinion

Blogs

Cyprus misses boat on unity

The window of opportunity to reunite the divided island of Cyprus slammed shut in 2004, when Greek-Cypriot voters overwhelmingly rejected a United Nations plan.

A week later the Greek-Cypriot government was allowed to join the European Union anyway, while the Turkish-Cypriots, who had voted in favour of reunification, were frozen out. But some people just won't give up.

A year ago, with new leadership on both sides, the Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots embarked on another round of talks aimed at reunifying the island. But good intentions are not enough.

Dimitris Christofias, the Greek-Cypriot president, and Mehmet Ali Talat, his Turkish-Cypriot counterpart, are old friends, and they both genuinely want to put the country back together, but after 50 meetings time is running out.

There will be elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in April, and the new president is likely to be hostile to reunification. The chance of Turkey ever joining the European Community is now shrinking towards zero and without the incentive of that goal, why would Ankara ever force the Turkish population of North Cyprus back into a union with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus?

The present obstacle to EU membership for Turkey, which first applied 22 years ago, is the opposition of the German, Austrian and French governments. They believe a Muslim-majority country has no place in what they see as a Christian Europe.

If anti-Muslim prejudice were the only obstacle, it could still become a EU member one of these days, but the tectonic shift is not driven by whoever is in power in Paris, Berlin or Vienna. It is driven by a growing concern in the EU that global warming is going to generate huge numbers of desperate climate refugees in Africa and the Middle East who will try to get into Europe.

If this view comes to prevail in the EU, the main question becomes: where do we hold the line against waves of climate refugees? Should we try to control the frontier along the eastern borders of Greece and Bulgaria (about 300km), or bring Turkey into the EU and try to control 1100km of borders with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and Georgia? It's not rocket science.

Unless it is overwhelmed by climate change, Turkey will be all right outside the EU. It will overtake Germany in population within a decade, and has a higher per capita income than several Eastern European members of the EU. Turkey was a second-rank great power until the end of the 19th century, and is likely to be back in that role by the mid-21st.

But if that is the role Turkey will be playing, why would it want to withdraw its troops from North Cyprus and push the Turkish-Cypriots into a single state with the Greek-Cypriots?

Why would the Turkish-Cypriots themselves want to resume their place as an unloved minority in a Greek-run state, rather than retain their own state in close association with the rising regional great power?

This is not the last chance for reunification of Cyprus: 2004 was. Greek-speaking Cyprus is prosperous and secure, Turkish-speaking Cyprus is approaching the same state, and Turkey has no incentive to support the creation of a reunified state in Cyprus. Partition is permanent. It's over.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based journalist whose work is published in more than 45 countries.

Page:

single page

Posted By: Gwynne Dyer on 29/11/2009 2:58:00 PM | Comments (8)

comments

Date: Newest first | Oldest first

Very good article? Probably won't be appreciated in certain quarters of the Cypriot population! Well done Gwyn

Posted by Fevzi, 29/11/2009 11:42:00 PM

This is a well thought and a balanced comment. There has been enmity between the two indigenous people since 1880 the beginning of British domimance.The Greek cypriotes have only been interested with union with greece,this is well documented.History has shown us that the union of such two peoples can never be achieved,one has to have dominance for peace and prosperity,in this circumstance this is not achievable. North Cyprus will never be accepted in to the EU, main reason is with out Turkeys acceptance one will have to satisfy the turkish armys involvement, and that will not be easy. On balance north Cyprus at present has evolved in to a better state,they only need to please Turkey,not all the rules and red tape the EU has to offer.[money is not all] Division is by far the best solution for both nationalities,the Greeks will never be satisfied with this clarity of course,dominance is their aim. In the face of a greater power,that achievement will never materialize. I am a turkish cypriot, and i have many Greek friends. I like to wish them all the best. BILAKO

Posted by bilako, 30/11/2009 12:48:13 AM

The Greek and Turkish Cypriots should just legally formalise their separation and be done with it. Obviously, neither party wants to integrate so why are they persisting with this ongoing charade? The world community have far more important priorities than engaging with two truculent parties. As with many divorces, it's often a tragedy for everyone else except for the two parties concerned.

Posted by Anthony, 30/11/2009 4:20:52 PM

The title of this article is completely idiotic. Like a fixed UN plan would be the solution to such a complex issue. And the article even supports its claims on the assumption that the next president will be against the reunification. How did you get that assumption? The reason that Turkish Cypriots were in favor and Greek Cypriots were against the UN plan in 2004 was that Turkish Cypriots had everything to win from this, their illegal state would become legal like an invasion never happened, its like, lets forget everything and just take all the property so that we have a fast solution. That solution was giving political power to the few thousand Turkish Cypriots that was as big as the political power of the almost a million Greek Cypriots.

Posted by Christos, 30/11/2009 7:27:22 PM

Very surprising that "realist" like Gwynne, seems to ignore reality. I could sit here and give you thousands of reasons why he's wrong, from countless UN resolutions condemning the illegal invasion and occupation, to the fact that no country recognises the "TRNC" (no, no it's not a real country...) to countless cases at the European Court of Human Rights where Turkey was convicted and fined (yep, the Turkish Republic did pay up and handsomely at that!) for taking land and homes. In any case, we can sit here and waste each other's time with our opinions which at the end of the day mean absolutely nothing. This is the fact, and you can choose to accept it or bury your head in the sand, it's really up to you: It's simple: if Turkey wants in it'll have to make concessions in Cyprus. Simple as that. Why do you think Turkey has not annexed the north part until now? they have not done so for the last 35 years. Did you really think the Turks are that stupid? So: if Turkey wants in = stop the occupation. Simple.

Posted by John, 30/11/2009 10:19:26 PM

The reason the charade continues, Anthony, is because the Turkish invasion is considered by all countries to be an illegal act where a certain group was ethnically cleansed from their lands, the property stolen in a criminal act. So, the two countries could be partitioned, but then what do you do when Greek Cypriots sue Turkish Cypriots in international courts for the right to their property? What do you do when NATO and EU Defense Forces can't interact because Turkey belongs to one grouping and Cyprus the other? If this were so simple as Dyer imagines, it would have already been done.

Posted by Dan, 1/12/2009 4:30:22 AM

John@ Can you explain to me why Turkey's action was illegal invasion ?

Posted by Emir Soler, 1/12/2009 5:01:40 PM

Emir, Are you seriously asking this? Because countless UN resolutions have said so and because no democratic country recognises the north....

Posted by John, 1/12/2009 7:33:47 PM

Offering you a new spin on the news of the day and the topics that often get us hot under the collar. Sometimes serious, sometimes humorous but always worth a look.