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European collapse unlikely

The deepening economic crisis in the European Union seems to have eased with two recent political changes.

In Rome the controversial Silvio Berlusconi has been replaced by Mario Monti, a widely respected economist who has held important EU positions.

In Athens, the new leader is also a well-respected figure, Lucas Papademos, who is regarded as ‘‘a safe pair of hands’’.

The crisis has, however, a long way to go before contemporary Europe settles back into its integrated prosperity and relative political contentment.

The issues at stake are rather tricky. Austerity measures such as forced introduction of reduced welfare benefits are very difficult for ordinary citizens in a democracy to accept, and a degree of unrest is inevitable.

Nor is it easy for Germans, for example, to accept they are going to have bear a large part of the financial burden to save the EU from disintegrating.

To resolve this situation is presenting the greatest challenge the EU has had to face since the Treaty of Rome started the integration process. Will it survive in these troubled circumstances?

I believe that it will, for no European wants to return to the situation that existed before World War II. The so-called balance-of-powers politics invariably led to conflict - and to two catastrophic wars.

And of course WWII was followed by the East-West nuclear confrontation, with the Europeans in the front line.

The basic aim is about preserving an enduring form of political integration ensuring peace for the first time in Europe’s history.

Even the last European conflicts following the collapse of Yugoslavia are very unlikely to occur again because of the protective EU security blanket covering its 27 member states.

In the circumstances, though, there is some speculation about a collapse of the EU that is extremely unlikely to happen. The new Europe, despite its present difficulties, has too much to lose.

Hopefully, the new leaders of Italy and Greece will win the confidence of their people and ease the unrest.

The APEC meeting in Hawaii is a very different matter. Although our politicians generally praise it, it is a loose gathering of the leaders of nations whose international priorities lie elsewhere.

Still, the move towards free trade is an interesting and welcome initiative.

Of particular interest this week is United States President Barack Obama’s brief visit to Canberra. No doubt there will be lots of speeches about the closeness of the US-Australia relationship.

However, when Prime Minister Julia Gillard reminds Mr Obama that we will see out the Afghanistan operation with them, she will hardly be expressing the views of many Australians.

The recent spate of casualties, seemingly inflicted by the people we went there to help, question the Australian force’s welcome in that country. These attacks may be part of a daring Taliban plot, but they must have a demoralising impact on our troops.

I share with retired General Alan Stretton the feeling that it is time we withdraw from that tortured country.

I am also concerned at the idea of having a US base in the Northern Territory. It risks drawing us into any conflict the Americans involve themselves in.

It sharply weakens our image of independence, and, of course, will not help our important relationship with China.

James Dunn is an author with four decades of experience as a foreign affairs official and with UN agencies.

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Between the Lines
Offering you a new spin on the news of the day and the topics that often get us hot under the collar. Sometimes serious, sometimes humorous but always worth a look.
Prime Minister Mario Monti looks on following a talk with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano at the Quirinale palace in Rome November 13, 2011. Photo: REUTERS/STEFANO RELLANDINI
Prime Minister Mario Monti looks on following a talk with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano at the Quirinale palace in Rome November 13, 2011. Photo: REUTERS/STEFANO RELLANDINI

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