Twelve months ago, along with other columnists, I advanced a fairly obvious conclusion – in international affairs 2011 was going to be a year of uncertainty.
Well, it looks as if that condition will continue to be with us in 2012. The global financial crisis is still basically unresolved and, although there have been some encouraging developments, it is likely to affect our fortunes in the year ahead. The oft-maligned EU has made some progress but there are still difficulties ahead. In the end, however, the determination of Europeans not to return to the risk of war and oppression will ensure its survival.
How will the United States economy perform in this presidential election year? It may lead to political indecision at the helm of the world’s most powerful economy which will affect us all. As things stand, Barack Obama’s chances of winning his second term in November are quite good, thanks to the failure of the Republicans to come up with an impressive candidate.
Our region should remain reasonably stable, based on a relatively stable east Asian economy, despite any difficulties with the new regime in North Korea. It may be a testing year for our nearest neighbours, PNG and Timor Leste.
In East Timor, the overall situation is encouragingly stable, with the new nation’s fragile economy benefiting from a substantial increase in oil/gas royalties and from further resource development.
Indeed, the recent budget provided for an expenditure of $1.7billion, an almost tenfold increase in what it was some five years ago. The nation now has over $9 billion invested in US Treasury bonds.
Important tests lie ahead in 2012, however. In May next year, elections will be held for the president and the National Assembly, and the inevitable noisy electioneering may test East Timor’s political stability. It will also mean the end of the United Nation’s Mission’s role, which began in 1999.
Australians can be reasonably happy about our 11-year involvement in Timor Leste. We have been able to assist the rehabilitation and development of a nation devastated by destruction and killing. Timorese are now in a confident mood, determined to shape their destiny free of external dominance.
A disturbing uncertainty hangs over our Middle East involvement. The future of Afghanistan is still rather gloomy, while recent events in Iraq are causing anxiety. It seems that less than a week after America’s much publicised withdrawal, a severe political crisis involving Shi’ite PM al-Maliki and his deputy Sunni leader Hashemi risks plunging the Iraqis back into serious sectarian conflict.
Continuing security problems in this region will continue to risk the lives of our troops, also adding to that social desperation that is causing so many locals to risk their lives to search for the peace and prosperity that beckons in the Lucky Country.
We can only be appalled at the latest boat disaster. Our politicians’ response to the sinking of their over-crowded vessel, which has claimed the lives of about 200, is not really compassionate enough when considered against our international obligations not to penalise refugees fleeing conflict situations with their well-founded fears of persecution.
Processing the refugees onshore is not likely to lead to an uncontrollable flood, because, as they will surely learn, the journey here is not only complex and costly; it is also unacceptably hazardous.
All the best for the season.
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