Some have questioned President Barack Obama's decision to reduce the size and disposition of the US Defence establishment, at a time when new threats are emerging in relations with Iran and North Korea. In reality, we do not have a lot to be anxious about. The Iranian threat to block the US Seventh Fleet's passage through the Gulf of Hormuz is unlikely to be implemented. True, the Iranians have some new weapons, but these are unlikely to prevent the destruction of the Iranian Navy, should they attempt to carry out their threat. Also the recent rescue of Iranian sailors from captivity by Somali pirates might inject goodwill into this stressed relationship.
As for North Korea, although the new leader is an unknown quantity, he will be under pressure from China, whose support is essential to the North's survival. There may be tense times ahead that will test China's intentions and Obama's tougher attitude to Beijing, which could put some strain on Canberra's relations with Washington, in the throes of presidential election politics until November.
The Republican search for its candidate is in full swing.
Mitt Romney was victorious at the first primaries, but just who will confront Obama in November has yet to be confirmed in this laborious process. Romney has some strong opponents, such as Newt Gingrich, who could topple him. The outcome is important to Australians, not least because our politicians have locked us into an unequal relationship with the US, making us a kind of overseas constituency. The relationship has taken us into Afghanistan, and will probably keep us there. We have several US bases in Australia, which could complicate our important relationship with China. This issue will surface during 2012. At this point I hope Obama makes it, or if the Republicans win, that it is the moderate Romney and not a right-winger like Gingrich who leads America into a critical period.
Attention is focused on a serious situation in West Papua, where the desire for independence is strong despite an oft heavy-handed Indonesian administration still dominated by the military. Since the so called Act of Free Choice, which diplomats called the Act of No Choice, the West Papuans have felt the weight of a form of colonial oppression. The desire for independence stayed, despite Indonesian attempts, sometimes draconian, to suppress it. East Timor's success in 1999 gave it a boost, but Jakarta's response was not accommodating. In fact, some senior Kopassus officers, later indicted by the UN Serious Crimes Unit, were transferred to West Papua, where they've been behind repressive actions against Papuan pro-independence activists.
Although the military has lost favour in Jakarta, in West Papua it was still in charge, where it conducted similar operations carried out earlier against Fretilin supporters in East Timor.
When Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took office an attempt was made to give Papua more autonomy and a taste of democracy, but it has fallen short of meeting aspirations of most Papuans. Despite the prospect of autonomy and increased expenditure in this resource rich province, there is a desire for a complete break. Part of the problem is the dominant position of the military still ready to use undemocratic methods ruthlessly employed in East Timor up to the end of the occupation.
It is time to see what we can do to atone for Australia's sorry past role in a matter involving a neighbourhood community.
James Dunn is an author with four decades of experience as a foreign affairs official and with UN agencies.
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