IT looks as if the year ahead will be an unsettling one in Australia as well as in Europe, the United States and the Middle East, with our Prime Minister facing a challenge from her party colleagues and an unrelenting attack from the Opposition.
If she survives the challenge, Julia Gillard may face a no-confidence motion mounted by Tony Abbott.
Internationally, the biggest security risk is an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear development site, or an attempt by the latter to obstruct the passage of oil tankers using the Gulf of Hormuz, which could provoke a US military response.
Asia seems fairly quiet, Afghanistan and Pakistan excluded. The much-feared North Korean move has yet to materialise, with encouraging signs that new leader Kim Jong-un might be an improvement on his predecessors.
The Asian economic scene is also less troubled than Europe, which is still wrestling with its financial crisis.
There are question marks over Russia, where Vladimir Putin is soon to face an election he seems likely to win, if with reduced support. Russia may have moved closer to the West in the past year, but in the UN Security Council, along with China it is still ready to exercise its veto, presenting an obstacle to moves to end violence in Syria.
In all, global security is not in bad shape, with our political crisis, if you could call it that, taking place against our own sound economy and regional stability.
The main challenge is how to extricate ourselves from Afghanistan, and not again to repeat this kind of military operation outside a UN mandate. The big question is: will Barack Obama be able to retain the US presidency in the face of a determined Republican challenge in November? The front runner at this stage, Mitt Romney, is likely to attract a huge amount of funding from those large US corporations who will be out to put one of their own into the White House. Obama’s re-election to a second term is therefore far from assured.
Nearer Australia, in neighbouring Timor Leste, a European-style presidential election will begin on March 17. There are more than 10 candidates, among them the incumbent, President Jose Ramos Horta, who has announced he will stand for a second term.
However, the election will be hotly contested, and if no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting, the winner will be chosen in a second round. Until recently Dr Ramos Horta was reluctant to stand again, but he has apparently been urged to seek a second term by more than 100,000 Timorese.
Although Ramos Horta is a popular figure, the outcome is far from being a forgone conclusion. Other candidates include Xavier do Amaral, who was elected Fretilin president in November 1975, in the wake of the Indonesian attack on Balibo, which took the lives of five Australian newsmen, and when I, too, was in East Timor. Major General Taur Matan Ruak, until recently defence force commander, is also a contender. There are also some female candidates, including Angelita Pires, the girlfriend of the rebel Reinado, who was killed in the incident that also led to the shooting of Jose Ramos Horta.
The election is being held at a crucial time for the new nation as the international security presence is soon to end. More than 300 Australian military personnel (mostly reservists) will soon start withdrawing. The UN mission will also end at the end of the year, though the president is calling for an advisory mission to remain.
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