Mercury sports reporters Tim Barrow and Chris Roots debate who will win tonight's opening State of Origin match in Melbourne.You can join the debate by leaving a message below.
CHRIS ROOTS: QLD WILL WINRemember 1989? That was the last time NSW went for a young team full of debutants against a ruthless Queensland machine.
The Maroons had won five games in a row in 1987-88 with Lewis, Meninga and Langer among a star-studded line-up.
The Blues decided to throw in an inexperienced team, including teenagers Brad Clyde and Laurie Daley, for the series opener and the result was a 36-6 shellacking.
Queensland would sweep the series to hold the shield for a third consecutive year, a mark matched by the present outfit.
While it is difficult to compare eras, the Maroons circa 2006-09 are probably the best team Queensland has put together.
The brains of Lockyer, Smith and Thurston are matched by the go-forward of Price and Civoniceva and the freakish try scoring abilities of Inglis and Folau.
It is a settled line-up and proven formula for success.
The unknown is the only thing NSW has going for it with eight debutants, but the pressure at Origin level has often led to first-timers failing.
The base for Queensland's victory tonight will not be the Australian backline but will come from up front.
Steve Price and Petero Civoniceva are leading props for yardage in the NRL. The back-up is on the interchange bench for the Maroons. Ben Hannant has averaged more yards than all but one of his Blues counterparts, Luke Bailey, and is fourth on the NRL frontrowers ladder.
While a lot has been made of the four NSW frontrowers, who will try and blunt the Queenslander, stats don't lie.
That should give Johnathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer the room they need to ignite the scoring machine, which is the Queensland backline.
It will also allow Cameron Smith to be dangerous from dummy-half after the traditional softening up period.
To talk of Queensland and not mention Greg Inglis and Israel Folau would be foolhardy. They possess the rare ability of coming up with the big play at the right time and are able to win a match by themselves.
NSW can't match that individual brilliance, while Queensland can add Lockyer, Thurston and Slater to their match winners list.
Queensland won last year's series without Lockyer and are a better side with him.
It might be a case of back to the future.
TIM BARROW: WHY NSW WILL WINThey may be underdogs and under-rated, but the clear message coming out of the NSW camp in Melbourne is there is nothing underdone about this Blues team.
Queensland, having won the past three series and featuring the entire Australian backline and front row, will start tonight's clash at Etihad Stadium as raging favourites.
It seems the belief that NSW can't topple the all-conquering Maroons has been compounded by the selection of seven rookies in the NSW team.
But take a glance at the list of debutants.
Dragons props Michael Weyman and Justin Poore have taken St George Illawarra all the way to the top of the NRL this season, while teammate Ben Creagh is currently the best second-rower in the competition.
Knights winger James McManus is brilliant in the air and Penrith's star centre Michael Jennings is dynamite, just track down the footage of his 109-metre try against the Roosters on YouTube for proof.
Canberra five-eighth Terry Campese has been chosen, amongst other things, for his size, ahead of Newcastle's Jarrod Mullen and must be prepared to take on the Queensland defensive line with the ball in his hands tonight.
And the final debutant Robbie Farah has been waiting in the wings for a couple of years for his chance.
There is a real belief within this NSW group that they can win this game - and the series.
And why not considering the wonderful form the players are in.
Blues halfback Peter Wallace is only starting to realise the powers he possesses with his magical hands and kicking game.
The disruption of losing Glenn Stewart (suspension) and Paul Gallen (shoulder injury) may actually work in the Blues favour, because NSW have major depth in the back row and Luke Lewis has the versatility and creativity to hurt Queensland.
NSW have been trying to dispell the myth that they lack the passion Queensland possesses ever since Origin started in 1980 - and as rank outsiders, tonight presents the perfect opportunity to chip away at that.
The other myth is that Queensland's class of 2006 rookies - then staring down the barrel of a fourth-straight series defeat - are now unbeatable.
Tonight's the night for myth-busting.
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