There's two reasons why I'm quietly confident about the Dragons' chances against the Broncos this weekend.
It's got nothing to do with us beating Brisbane eight billion times or that the Broncos haven't won a finals match at Suncorp since Menzies was in power.
Those sort of stats are nice but they don't really mean anything. It's not as though Supercoach Bennett is going tell his players, "forget training, they haven't won a finals game at Suncorp. We're certs".
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Dragons' biggest fan competition No, I'm more interested in the fact everyone has already written us off. If you're expected to lose, then that removes a lot of the pressure going into the game. By contrast, it increases the pressure on your opponent, considering everyone expects them to win.
Sure, Broncos coach Ivan "Angry Ant" Henjak earlier this week tried to claim the Dragons were the ones under pressure but he's dreaming.
He also suggested that "everything for us is a bonus right now" because no-one expected the Broncos to make the finals. That's a very odd way for a coach to look at the finals - that just getting there is good enough.
As well as that release of pressure the other thing that gives me confidence is that we actually weren't all that far away from a win against the Eels.
People tend to forget the Parramatta win came with a fair bit of luck. Their first try came from a bat-back which, as any fan knows, is a tactic that fails more than it succeeds. Their third came from an Eric Grothe intercept - if he misses the ball it goes straight to B.Moz who scores in the corner.
And Jarryd Hayne's light-stepping try, while pretty to watch, was scored late in the game against a tired defence that probably sensed the game had gotten away from them.
So that's three tries that relied on a fair bit of luck. The Dragons had their own bit of luck too - bad.
With the score at 0-0, they were denied a try after the ref ruled Wendell Sailor had knocked on. But for the life of me, I couldn't see the knock-on - and I reckon the video ref wouldn't have either if it had been referred to him.
So, despite what the experts say, I don't think we were far off the pace last week. We're certainly not out of form.
And, at the moment, we're still in the race.