Unemployment in the Illawarra could rise to 10 per cent within a year after more businesses in the region's key industries reach a point where they can no longer hang on to employees amid the financial crisis.
That was the prediction of Illawarra Regional Information Service executive director Simon Pomfret yesterday after new figures revealed the region's jobless rate had jumped almost two percentage points to 7.6 per cent from December 2008 to January 2009.
The figures show the unemployment rate in Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama still exceeds the national figure, which rose from 4.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent over the same period.
Mr Pomfret said the Illawarra increase was larger than normal.
"I think we're starting to see the trend we will see for the next six to 12 months - though obviously we hope the month to month increases won't be as significant (as the most recent)," he said.
"I think if the Government is predicting the national unemployment rate will reach 7 per cent then we at least will have to get to 9 or 10 per cent."
Mr Pomfret said a more diversified economy means the region shouldn't experience the hard times of 1982, where the jobless rate hovered around 17 per cent.
Still, job losses announced in recent weeks, plus predicted future losses in manufacturing, commercial construction and finance, would continue the upward trend in unemployment if overseas' conditions remain as they are now.
"I think at the moment most sectors are just holding on, but not for much longer," Mr Pomfret said.
"I think those businesses in engineering and project management who set up a business model around BlueScope Steel will have job cuts.
"Hopefully retail can hold on with the Government's stimulus package but it might turn out to be a drop in the ocean."
With the State Government considering a regional-specific jobs package to address unemployment, Cunningham Federal Labor MP Sharon Bird told the Mercury her ministerial colleagues were considering a request from the region's MPs for a similar federal package.
Ms Bird said the new unemployment figures were "not surprising" but pointed out the influx of university students into Wollongong for first term may have inflated the figures.
"When this (financial crisis) first started to roll out ... I was concerned about workers in retail and hospitality and those less able to defend themselves," she said.
"I think our stimulus package has alleviated some pressure, for example, the fact Woolworths have announced about 7000 new jobs.
"We'll be working with them to see if we can't help some of the local Pacific Brands workers find work there."
Ms Bird agreed with predictions that mining and manufacturing sectors would be vulnerable to job losses in coming months unless there was a change in overseas demand.
Yesterday, Federal Minister for Resources, Energy and Tourism Martin Ferguson met industry groups - including representatives from BlueScope Steel and coal companies - to discuss the global financial crisis and concerns about the introduction of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.
"Martin's all about trying to speak to people on the ground about what they're experiencing - that's what the visit was about," Ms Bird said.
One agreement from the meeting was the Government would work with the local tourism sector to ensure they attracted spending money from the Government's economic stimulus package.
Meantime, in brighter jobs news, Illawarra Coal announced it had employed 13 new apprentices, all aged under 23.
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