Key economic indicators all point to an improving Illawarra economy, but statisticians warn the devil is in the detail when it comes to the region's fluctuating employment.
The unemployment rate for Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama dropped to 7.3 per cent in September, down from 8.6 per cent the previous month, new data shows.
But the rate has fluctuated from a low of 5.6 per cent to as high as 9.6 per cent in the past six months.
Illawarra jobless give up search
Illawarra jobless rate bound for 10%In an attempt to paint a clearer picture of the situation and rectify the data volatility, the Mercury asked the Illawarra Regional Information Service to also provide annualised moving monthly rates - figures that average out the previous 12 unemployment rates to give a clearer indication of trends.
Under this measure, the Illawarra's unemployment rate has consistently risen since December last year. The most recent reading, for September, is the first for several years in which the annualised and normal rates have converged.
IRIS research manager Natalie Viselli said the upward trend of the annualised figures is backed by statistics that show the number of people looking for work has steadily fallen since the start of the year, forcing the jobless rate down.
She said there were about 10,000 fewer people employed in the region now compared with January, when the jobless rate was 7.6 per cent.
However, an improvement was expected over the next 12 months.
The Illawarra unemployment rate of 7.3 per cent is still above the NSW jobless figure of 5.6 per cent and the national figure of 5.7 per cent.
The state rate fell below the national rate for the first time in more than four years last month.
Ms Viselli said the unemployment rate was "a lagging indicator" and noted that other economic readings had been positive over the past few months. "Consumer confidence has improved dramatically and business confidence is also on the way up," she said.
A recent poll of Illawarra businesses found 16.5 per cent believe the region's economy has started to improve, while trading and employment conditions, plus profitability, are all in a better position than in the first quarter.
About 35 per cent of Illawarra employers expect to recruit extra staff in the next 12 months. This compares with 51 per cent who took on extra employees in 2008.
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