Embattled Kiama MP Matt Brown is set to lose his seat at the next state election according to an exclusive Mercury/ IRIS poll which shows voter support has plummeted since he was re-elected in 2007.
During December, IRIS surveyed 300 voters in each of the Illawarra electorates of Keira, Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama in a poll commissioned by the Mercury.
Mr Brown's share of the primary vote was 29 per cent - up by six percentage points from the last IRIS poll in September 2008, which coincided with his sacking as police minister and accusations he had danced in his underwear at an alcohol-fuelled budget night party.
EDITORIAL: Labor facing tough times in its heartlandBut the crucial two-party preferred poll shows he would have just 43 per cent of the vote after preferences and could lose his seat by a 14 per cent margin to the Liberal Party. His support has slumped by 38 per cent since he won the seat on a two-party margin of 24 per cent in 2007.
Keira MP David Campbell also would struggle to win his seat if an election was called, the survey shows, with just 36 per cent of the primary vote and only 53 per cent after preferences - a margin of just 6 per cent.
At the last election, Mr Campbell polled 58 per cent of the primary vote and 72 per cent after preferences.
Noreen Hay's seat of Wollongong would remain safe, although her share of the primary vote would fall.
Shellharbour MP Lylea McMahon was the only state member to have both their share of the primary and two-party preferred vote increase and would have a 61 per cent share of votes after preferences - up three percentage points from the last poll.
Mr Brown was worried by the results, but maintained he would continue doing his best to represent residents of his electorate.
"Of course there is a concern. The Government has gone through a very rocky period," he said.
"I think voters in the Kiama area want to see some stability. However we are getting on with our election promises and they are being met."
Premier Kristina Keneally was "absolutely" the best person to lead the Labor Party to the next election, Mr Brown said.
"She has the smarts, the determination and the compassion to lead us to the next election and be a great premier," he said.
Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell said Kiama was "a seat of interest" for the Liberal Party. Nominations for a candidate to contest the next election opened in September and he expected they would close by March, ahead of a preselection ballot in April.
"Frankly unless Kiama changes hands, there is unlikely to be a change of government. It is a must-win seat for us," Mr O'Farrell said.
"We need to pick up around a dozen new seats to form government but no seat is being taken for granted."
Mr Campbell confirmed he would contest the next election and said he never worried about polls.
"I prefer to focus my time on working to deliver for my electorate and the region through my role as MP, and Transport and Roads Minister," he said.
"I am honoured to represent the people of Keira and take nothing for granted in the role."
Declining support shown by the poll was not consistent with Ms Hay's interaction with residents.
"The people of my electorate acknowledge that I work hard for them and there is a mutual respect," she said. "I can ensure you my experience is very positive."
Ms McMahon said she would continue to work hard for her community and fight for a fair share of funding.
"The only poll that counts is the election itself and I will continue to work hard up until that date and beyond that date, with the support of the community," she said.
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