The federal seat of Gilmore is shaping up as a political powder keg ahead of an upcoming election as polls show Labor lurching ahead of the Coalition.
Just days after Prime Minister Julia Gillard was elevated to the top job, the latest Herald-Nielsen poll shows Labor's two-party preferred approval rating now leads the Coalition 55-45, a jump of eight percentage points in the three weeks since the last poll.
Straddling the Illawarra and Shoalhaven, Gilmore is one of the nation's most marginal seats, swinging Labor's way by a miniscule 0.3 per cent.
While Liberal MP Joanna Gash has made herself at home in the seat, retaining it since 1996, she has been bracing herself for a fierce battle after a boundary change cut her margin by more than 4 per cent.
The new Prime Minister's popularity will make the fight even tougher.
"I think it will be one of the hardest ones that we have because we are marginally Labor," she said.
Drama surrounding the Labor candidate set to take on Ms Gash will be resolved this weekend with the party taking a vote on Saturday.
After ex-footballer David Boyle withdrew from the candidacy earlier this month, the party was forced to return to square one, again calling for nominations for preselection.
"Whoever they put up, I'll have to put my best campaign forward and hope the residents of my electorate vote for the person they believe will best represent them," Ms Gash said.
Speculation that the popular new Prime Minister could visit the marginal electorate in a bid to tip the balance Labor's way have also been growing.
Pegged as one of the frontrunners for preselection, Kiama man Neil Reilly is cautiously optimistic Julia Gillard could set foot in the region ahead of the next election.
"It's a possibility, she has visited here before," he said.
In July 2005, Ms Gillard was in the region to hear the horror stories of residents languishing on the public dental health list at an Illawarra Dental Health Action Group meeting.
Despite insisting speculation of a return visit by the new Prime Minister was premature, Throsby MP Jennie George said she would be thrilled to see Julia Gillard return to the Illawarra.
"We'd be very keen, of course, to have her back in the electorate," she said.