Sometimes ignoring the obvious can be the worst thing in racing, so don't and back Viewed to win his second consecutive Melbourne Cup today.
Only five horses have won back-to-back Cups but none has improved as much as Viewed since the first Tuesday in November, 2008.
He went into the Cup last year an honest stayer with an outside hope at $41 and held off Bauer in the closest of finishes.
Before that he finished 10th in the Caulfield Cup and 11th in the Mackinnon Stakes. Roll forward 12 months and he has won the Caulfield Cup and ran a super third in the Mackinnon.
Viewed has paid for his improved form, including two weight-for-age placings during the Sydney autumn, and will carry 58kg - five kilograms more than last year.
But measured against modern dual Cup winners, the penalty isn't so severe.
It's a half kilogram more than Makybe Diva was asked to carry between her first two cups and she carried a similar penalty to Think Big in 1974-75.
Think Big didn't win a race between his successes and although the Diva ran second in the Caulfield Cup, her only win was in the Sydney Cup, which is generally a substandard field.
Viewed won the second biggest staying handicap of the year and has proven himself at weight-for-age.
The Bart Cummings' factor can't be denied. The man is a genius, winning the Melbourne Cup 12 times and not much has changed with his training methods between his first winner Light Fingers (1965) and Viewed last year.
Horses come from around the world, unorthodoxly trained, but Bart gets his runners ready through the Caulfield Cup, the best form guide for today.
The standout run in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago was Viewed. He beat the rest by more than two lengths and on Saturday in the Mackinnon he was impressive.
"He was getting warmed up on the post (on Saturday) and the extra distance will be up his alley," Cummings noted.
"If the weight doesn't stop him, he'll probably have a good chance of winning."
It is an understated view from Cummings, who will also saddle up realistic chances Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder.
While Cummings is the master, few are more passionate about the Melbourne Cup than owner Lloyd Williams.
He would not care if his racing operation didn't win another race all year if he could get his hands on the Cup each November.
Williams, who has won the race three times, watched his team cut to one on Saturday as Efficient and Zipping were withdrawn with injuries but C'est La Guerre might be all he needs.
The five-year-old ran third to Viewed last year and gets a 3.5kg weight advantage from that defeat. He has shabby form but his excuse is an injured back in the Caulfield Cup and he saves his best for Flemington
Shocking is peaking at the right time. The Mark Kavanagh-trained four-year-old has run into boom stayer Alcopop twice this spring and came off second best.
However, he is another which enjoys the long stretches of Flemington, winning his only two runs there.
He shapes as the lightweight chance, which can topple the favourite after his win in the Lexus Stakes (2500m) on Saturday.
Alcopop is the fairytale story of the battlers from the Adelaide bush but he has yet to tackle the best stayers and is worth risking.
On form best of the internationals appears Munsef but usually the visitors are just a sideshow to the winner and, like last year, that will be Viewed.
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