Swine flu expected to infect one in five Australians

Swine flu is now expected to hit one in five Australians this winter, authorities said.As the number of infected people around the country climbed to 66 cases last night, experts warned that for every person infected, another 10 would now be carrying the highly contagious virus.The federal Health Minister, Nicola Roxon, yesterday acknowledged the H1N1 virus was spreading rapidly and said the Government was assessing new measures to contain it."The community does have to prepare itself for there to be a significant increase in the number of cases confirmed," she said.Raina MacIntyre, a professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the University of NSW, said banning sporting events, music concerts and other mass gatherings would curb the virus if the Government acted soon."If you wait until the peak of the epidemic, it's too late. You really have to implement those social distancing measures right at the beginning of the epidemic for them to be effective and they can be highly effective," said Professor MacIntyre, who is a member of Australia's Pandemic Influenza Advisory Group.Dr Jodie McVernon, a pediatrician who has been modelling the virus for the Federal Government, said parents should start stocking their pantries with non-perishables in case they find themselves in quarantine. "It's a sensible thing to do from now on in case your child's school is closed tomorrow," said Dr McVernon, who works at the University of Melbourne's population health departmentRobert Booy, the head of clinical research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance at the University of Sydney, said while there were fewer than 70 confirmed swine flu cases to date nationally, the number of people infected could be as high as 1000.And that could climb to tens of thousands within weeks."There's many cases that either don't have symptoms or they have sniffles and don't realise they've got it," he said. "They would be infectious but not as infectious as people who are coughing and sneezing a lot." He expected Australia would record swine flu deaths, with the victims likely to be people with chronic medical conditions."Once it starts to infect hundreds of thousands, we will see deaths," he said.Professor Booy said it was possible for a person to catch both the seasonal flu and swine flu, however that was not unusual and did not necessarily make for an illness twice as bad. He said one in 20 children who presented to hospitals with a virus were infected with two viruses."We don't know that having two infections would be worse," he said. "Once you've got one viral infection, the body starts responding with particular hormones which stops other viruses getting in and causing trouble."To date, most Australian cases have been mild and a vaccine should be ready by late July or early August, he said.Children under 18 are most at risk of contracting the virus, with adults, particularly aged over 65, showing some immunity to it, the experts said.