Ben Affleck and Bryan Cranston in Argo.
Of all the hundreds of films released in 2012, only a few dozen are in contention for Oscars on Sunday night, US time. And when it comes to the big categories – best picture, best director and the four acting awards – the field is even narrower.
In fact, according to Fairfax’s crack team of film critics – Jake Wilson and Philippa Hawker of The Age, Sandra Hall and Paul Byrnes of The Sydney Morning Herald, and Craig Mathieson and Ed Gibbs of The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald – only 11 films are in with anything like a shout in these six awards, and at the end of the day only four will carry away statuettes. But which four are they? And will our experts be right?
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Django Unchained
Will win: Argo
Why: In no conceivable way the outstanding film of the year, but it represents a safe, seemingly worthy middle ground.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Beasts of the
Southern
WildSouthern
Will win: Argo
Why: After three foreign films in four years (Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech and The Artist) it's an American year.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Life of Pi
Will Win: Argo
Why: It unites political thriller with the feelgood factor.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Lincoln
Why: It ticks all the boxes.
Our critics predict: Argo 5, Lincoln 1
BEST DIRECTOR
CRAIG MATHIESON
Should win: Michael Haneke
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Zero Dark Thirty's
ED GIBBS
Should win: Steven Spielberg
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Why: It's a timely reminder of what political muscle is truly capable of.
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Michael Haneke
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Why: Because it's probably time.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Benh Zeitlin
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Why: A consolation for not winning best picture.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Ang Lee
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Why: He's delivered gravitas combined with box-office grosses, a perfect Oscar combo.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: David O. Russell
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Why: A prestige project, and it hasn't been his turn in a while.
Steven Spielberg 6-0
BEST ACTOR
CRAIG MATHIESON
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: It's nigh on impossible to see anyone beating the Best Actor in the World™.
ED GIBBS
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: An exemplary, thoroughly rounded reading of the man, fused with wit, candour and wisdom.
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: He's getting every award in the world for the role, and it's impossible to believe the Academy will buck the trend.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: A towering performance in a towering career. If he's got any sense he'll make his acceptance speech exactly 272 words long, like the Gettysburg Address.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: Apart from the uncanny sense of conviction he brings to Lincoln, there's the gentle humour which saves his performance from the reverential.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Why: A legend playing a legend - as close as you can get to a sure thing.
Our critics predict: Daniel Day-Lewis 6-0
BEST ACTRESS
CRAIG MATHIESON
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Will win: Jessica Chastain
Why: A remarkable performance lacking typical Oscar bait, but the quality is undeniable.
ED GIBBS
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Why: A typically intuitive and immaculately timed performance, and likely to be the only acting gong Russell's film wins.
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Will win: Jessica Chastain
Why: A great performance, and even voters who are uncomfortable with the film acknowledge that.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Why: Too many voters won't have seen Amour, and too many will punish Zero Dark Thirty for being "pro-torture''.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva or Jessica Chastain
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Why: For the uncompromising toughness and honesty she brings to Zero Dark Thirty.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Will win: Naomi Watts
Why: Not too young, not too old, not too controversial.
Our critics predict: Jessica Chastain 3, Jennifer Lawrence 2, Naomi Watts 1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CRAIG MATHIESON
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Why: Because we want to see if the legendary grump actually smiles.
ED GIBBS
Should win: Robert De Niro
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Why: Only Christoph Waltz (for Django Unchained) is likely to pose a threat.
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Why: He gives an appealing performance in a serious film, and the Academy likes that.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Dunno
Will win: Robert De Niro
Why: Because Harvey Weinstein says he should.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Will win: Robert De Niro
Why: The amount of money and effort Weinstein has pumped into promoting the film, and the fact De Niro is the sentimental favourite.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Why: Who doesn't enjoy watching Jones act gruff yet lovable?
Our critics predict: Tommy Lee Jones 4, Robert De Niro 2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
CRAIG MATHIESON
Should win: Amy Adams
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: So we can see her deliver an acceptance speech as emotionally amplified and rehearsed as her rendition of I Dreamed a Dream in the film itself.
ED GIBBS
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: She gives it her all as the saintly prostitute Fantine and she made Les Miserables largely bearable.
PHILIPPA HAWKER
Should win: Helen Hunt
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: Her turn is the very definition of Oscar bait.
PAUL BYRNES
Should win: Helen Hunt
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: Because Les Mis won't win big in the other categories, and she made everyone cry.
SANDRA HALL
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: Fantine may be a brief role but it encapsulates everything that Les Mis is about.
JAKE WILSON
Should win: Amy Adams
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Why: If not, we'll all be in trouble.
Our critics predict: Anne Hathaway 6-0
Sydney Morning Herald