Bryce Gibbs recently asked to sit down with Carlton to discuss its plans for the future so he could better decide his own plans. Carlton’s prospectus has since changed. So too has Gibbs’.
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Where Gibbs was a coveted urgent re-signing, Carlton should now pause to consider.
The dynamic has shifted, the questions have changed, and the prospectus now reads differently. Carlton’s rebuild might better be expedited by Gibbs leaving.
The question of whether to sign him or not will not satisfactorily be answered until the remainder of the season plays out, but where once it appeared to be a matter of will that he re-sign, now it is a question of: do we want him to re-sign?
Winless after four rounds, Carlton will almost certainly not play in the finals and appears likely to finish in the bottom bracket of sides. Even seven or eight wins in the final 18 rounds will have the Blues in the bottom five or six teams (the Bulldogs won eight games last year and finished 15th).
That would mean the Blues could, for instance, end up with a draft pick at number four or five. Were Gibbs to return to Adelaide, the compensation (and Carlton can get an indication on the likely compensation before making a decision) would probably be the pick after its first pick. So potentially the Blues could have picks four and five or five and six.
Of course, the level of compensation would depend on a few things, such as the size of Gibbs’ contract and whether the Blues brought in a free agent to offset the one they lost.
But the scenario now exists where Carlton could potentially end up with two early draft picks in a draft that is considered by recruiters to be good and boasting the rare commodity of talented tall players among the cream of the talent. The opportunity then presents to recruit two key-position players around which a list can be rebuilt, much in the manner that Hawthorn did with Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, Collingwood with Ben Reid and Nathan Brown.
True, Carlton can keep Gibbs and bring in one tall, but removing the Gibbs money from the salary cap as well as introducing a second tall player from the prime of the draft would help expedite the rebuild of the list the club now accepts is necessary.
''There is no doubt you would be waiting on Gibbs now,'' said one club list manager. ''You would not sign him when they could potentially end up with pick two, three or four in the draft, and so the compensation they’d get would give them pick three and four or four and five or whatever it is.
"Would you get a better player at four or five than Bryce Gibbs? In this draft, particularly with the talls that are there, I would think you would.''
A slightly complicating factor of the Gibbs situation is he was a No.1 draft pick and no club likes to move on first picks for the question it raises of their initial choice. Free agency changes that dynamic slightly as it acknowledges the decision is partly out of clubs’ hands.
''I am not sure about [premiership] clocks, I’m a realist,'' Carlton president Stephen Kernahan said. ''We changed our list last year, we finished sixth last year, we are far from being a cot case.
"If people think we have overrated our list - we have played finals four of the last five years. We’ve been around the mark without beating the top sides. We have got to get better than that.
"We have changed our list a lot this year and we’ll do it again this year and Mick [Malthouse] is the best bloke to get that done with our recruiting staff and our list-management team, and that’s going to happen.''
Malthouse will not be hurrying Gibbs out the door - and nor should he, for he is a nice player even if not elite, but will he continue to make Carlton better?
The question is: would he help expedite the pace of Carlton’s rebuild more by staying or going? If Carlton can get two picks inside six, it should be comfortable with letting Gibbs go.
