A leading South Coast terrorism expert says the Martin Place siege is unusual for a number of reasons.
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University of Wollongong’s Professor Adam Dolnik is a trained hostage negotiator and lecturer on issues dealing with terrorism.
He said it was unusual for a “lone wolf” to conduct this kind of attack.
It was also rarer to see barricade-style hostage situations.
“We don’t know what the motivation here is,” he said.
“When it is one person it could be psychopathology in search of a reason.
“If [a lone wolf] joins a bandwagon, they might go try to detonate or shoot somebody.”
He said a lone wolf in a hostage situation would not be able to last long.
“You can’t sleep, you’re high on adrenaline … exhaustion is going to wear you down.
“It’s only going to be able to last hours, a couple of days at the most.
“From that perspective, it doesn’t look like a sophisticated operation with a lot of planning.”
Time was the key issue for negotiators, he said.
“Negotiation is the best option here. It’s a proven option that works.”
He said while there would be all sorts of pressure to have roads reopened to traffic, negotiators would need time to allow for a peaceful resolution.
Professor Dolnik said it was impossible to prevent these types of attack, as intelligence usually focused on larger links.
As a frequent traveller, he was not shocked at an attack on Australian soil.
“It doesn’t surprise me at all,” he said.
“It’s a surprise that it hasn’t happened. What is surprising is the modus operandi. We don’t see barricade hostage situations in the context of terrorism.”
He said it was a popular terrorism technique during the 1980s, but not widely since.
“This is what makes it interesting and media attractive,” he said.
“Even though nothing is happening, people are still watching.”
Although he could not give specifics as to how a conclusion might come about, Professor Dolnik said a number of steps would need to happen.
“Basically in any situation like this, it is confusing, you need to contain the location,” he said.
“You need to make sure people who could get access cannot.
“You would evacuate and set up a secure perimeter to stabilise the situation.
“Then try to establish communication, try to find out what is going on what the motivation is and try to get hostages released.
“They will need to let time pass to find out what is going on so they can improve their response.
“I think the bottom line is terrorism is about fear.
“What the government is saying is right, go about your business and don’t let it affect your way of life.
“The most important thing for a resolution is providing negotiators with time and they are going to look for a peaceful way to resolve this.”
