Winter has almost arrived and it will certainly feel like it as overnight temperatures plunge into single digits across the Illawarra this week.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
A morning shower or two and a top of 15 degrees is expected in Wollongong on Monday, but minimum temperatures are tipped to drop to as low as 5 degrees at Albion Park on Tuesday morning.
The arrival of the winter chill brings a three-month run of near-average autumn temperatures to an end and rounds out a season that saw parts of the Illawarra drenched with almost 500millimetres of rain.
As of late Sunday, 487milli-metres had been tipped out of Wollongong’s coastal rain gauge at Bellambi since March 1, with 347.4millimetres recorded inland at Albion Park.
More than half the totals fell during April – 302millimetres and 261millimetres respectively – when an east coast low lashed the region for three days.
Weatherzone meteorologist Tristan Meyers said the high falls delivered Wollongong its second-wettest autumn in nearly 17 years while Moss Vale and Nowra had their wettest autumn in 14 years. As for temperature, Mr Meyers said much of the Illawarra was ‘‘bang on average’’.
‘‘There were slight variations but there wasn’t anything too crazy with temperature extremes, it was more the rainfall that [the Illawarra] really copped.’’
Looking to winter, forecasters say the main climate drivers are the Southern Oscillation Index, which gives details about El Nino or La Nina events in the Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the IOD is the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas – a western pole in the Arabian Sea and an eastern pole in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia – and is a ‘‘significant contributor to rainfall variability in Australia’’.
‘‘For this winter, we’re looking at relatively drier than average [conditions] and warmer nights and days than average as well.
‘‘The warmer nights are mainly to do with clouds associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole – more cloud cover traps heat overnight and that’s why we’re saying possibly warmer than average.’’
In its climate outlook for winter, the bureau says the El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen and some climate models suggest an increased chance of a positive IOD event developing later this year.
‘‘Positive IOD events are typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over southern and central Australia,’’ the outlook said.