UNLESS Parramatta can launch a stunning NRL fightback, the bar has been set lower for finals hopefuls like St George Illawarra.
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The Eels are reeling after being stripped of 12 points, as well as a $1 million fine for breaches dating back to 2013.
From fifth – and considered a genuine premiership threat – the Eels now face a daunting task to make the top eight.
It certainly makes the odds more favourable for several clubs, including St George Illawarra, to make the playoffs.
In the past decade, only the Warriors in 2008 have made the finals with a negative points differential.
They finished on 30 competition points to get there, meaning the Dragons – 11th at 4-5 (-97) – need to win nine of their remaining 15 games.
Instead, the target could be lowered if the Eels cannot come back from the brink after Tuesday’s announcement.
In 2006, the Warriors had four points stripped from them as a salary cap penalty, which ultimately cost them a top eight spot.
The Kiwi franchise finished 10th on 24 points, but the extra four would have lifted them to eighth on for-and-against, ahead of Parramatta.
Still, Parramatta coach Brad Arthur is adamant the team can respond this year, to make an unlikely run to September action.
“(The players) are defiant,” Arthur said. “Twelve (wins) from 15 (games) – that's the situation and they're determined. We're very disappointed, but there's still hope for us. At the start of the year we wanted to play finals football and nothing's changed and we're really committed to trying to do our best to make sure that can still happen come 26 rounds.
“We've won 68 per cent of our games at the moment, we've got to win 80 per cent of our games. It's tough but we're prepared for the fight and we're really committed to trying to do our best to make sure that can still happen come after 26 rounds.”
If Arthur’s faith is justified, St George Illawarra will face a crucial round 25 showdown against the Eels.