The Illawarra has just experienced its warmest autumn on record.
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Above-average temperatures and little rainfall were the season’s main weather features, but a change is in the air.
Although some temperatures are tipped to remain warmer than normal during winter, the season should be “quite a wet one”.
The reason – an increased chance of a La Niña event later in the season. La Niña is the opposite to El Niño and typically brings above normal rainfall to much of Australia.
The winter rainfall outlook is in contrast to recent months, when below average rainfall was recorded across the region, particularly during April and May.
To put that dry spell into perspective, the 46mm that fell at Bellambi Point in the 24 hours to 9am on Wednesday was more than four times the weather station’s May total of 9.8mm.
Bellambi Point, Albion Park and Kiama recorded their warmest maximum, minimum and average autumn temperatures on record.
All three weather stations have only been operating less than 20 years.
“The previous warmest autumn for the Illawarra based on these stations’ data was 2014, however 2016 has broken these records by a considerable margin,” Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Felicity Gamble said.
Maximum temperatures at Albion Park and Kiama were around 1.4°C above average while minimum temperatures were around 1.3°C higher than the norm.
Ms Gamble said the hot autumn was the result of a number of factors, including warm sea surface temperatures, a strong El Niño event and a limited number of “intrusions of air from the south allowing temperatures to remain above average for extended periods”.
Looking ahead, she said the winter outlook was “quite a wet one for the region”.
“There is a 75 to 80 per cent chance of receiving above normal falls during the June, July, August period,” she said.
“Odds are close to 50:50 for maximum temperatures, however there is a strong likelihood that overnight temperatures will be warmer than normal along much of the east coast of Australia for the winter.”
AUTUMN WEATHER
Albion Park
- Hottest day: 32.4°C (6/4)
- Coldest day: 15.0°C (28/5)
- Warmest night: 21.4°C (9/3)
- Coolest night: 5.4°C (14/5)
- Wettest day: 19.2mm (17/5)
- Total rainfall: 50.8mm
Bellambi Point
- Hottest day: 29.2°C (2/4)
- Coldest day: 15.4°C (28/5)
- Warmest night: 22.2°C (4/3)
- Coolest night: 8.0°C (30/5)
- Wettest day: 118mm (27/3)
- Total rainfall: 268.6mm
Kiama
- Hottest day: 30.4°C (6/4)
- Coldest day: 14.9°C (28/5)
- Coolest night: 9.0°C (30/5)
- Wettest day: 38.4mm (17/3)
- Total rainfall: 128.4mm