Analysis
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
The Illawarra’s political – and physical – landscape has changed significantly since residents last cast their votes in a council election.
There’s been a state poll, three premiers, a by-election to elect a new Wollongong state MP and two federal elections, as well as a housing and construction boom that means Wollongong and Shellharbour now look like very different cities.
Going to the polls in September 2011, residents were electing the first councillors since the two councils were sacked amid corruption allegations and dysfunction.
In contrast, apart from having to fend off mergers, the past six years have been stable and scandal free.
Rather than sweeping change, it’s likely voters will deliver some small shifts in the political make-up of both councils.
In 2011, Wollongong voters delivered a politically balanced council, with four Labor, four Liberal, two Greens and two independent councillors, headed by an independent mayor.
However, Cr Bradbery said he thought it was unlikely this very fine balance would remain.
”I was given a great set of cards this time, because no one party dominated,” he said.
Read more: Gordon Bradbery set to be returned as mayor
”But Labor has done a great job in terms of the energy they’ve put into this campaign, and I think they might end up having the largest group on council.”
In Wollongong, councillor candidates need about 20 per cent of the vote in their ward to be elected without preferences.
It is reasonable to expect that there will be at least one Liberal and one Labor councillor elected in each ward.
But after being on the nose in 2011, Labor will be looking to increase their numbers – perhaps hoping to pick up an extra spot in the central or northern suburbs.
Labor easily got two spots in the southern suburbs last time and should do so again, but incumbent councillor Ann Martin – listed third on that ticket – is unlikely to get over the line.
The Liberals did well in the Labor-heartland city in 2011, and will be looking to hang on to their four spots this time.
However, discontent with Liberal state and federal governments might see a dent in votes.
Preferences will likely get Mithra Cox, of the Greens (who got 15 per cent of the vote last time) over the line in the northern suburbs.
But with strong contenders from Labor and the Liberals in the central Wollongong ward, it could be a tough ask for Cath Blakey to replace outgoing Greens councillor George Takacs.
As for independent candidates, former Port Kembla Corporation CEO Dom Figliomeni is likely to be a new member of council.
Second on Cr Bradbery’s ticket, he will get all that ticket’s votes in the likely event the Lord Mayor is returned to his position.
“Dom is optimistic,” Cr Bradbery said. “We think he’ll get the quota to get across the line and he’s worked hard.”
There’s also likely to be change for the existing independents Greg Petty and Vicki Curran.
The former is listed second on his ticket this time round, and could be replaced by community-minded council meeting stalwart Warwick Erwin.
Passionate campaigner Cr Curran, who received 16 per cent of the vote in the southern suburbs in 2011, is this time running in the central suburbs, which could affect her votes.
Spots to watch in Shellharbour
In Shellharbour, where seven councillors will be elected, candidates need to receive about 12.5 per cent of the total vote to be elected.
In 2011, there were two Labor councillors, two Liberal councillors (both of whom have now left the party), and three independent councillors – with one of the independents, David Boyle, also a member of the ALP.
Last time, Labor got enough votes (27 per cent) in the first count to have two candidates (Marianne Saliba and John Murray) elected.
At this election, the party is again running an endorsed ticket headed by Cr Saliba, but is also running two independent tickets made up of Labor Party members.
Headed up by Cr Murray and former councillor Barry Bird, these tickets could mean Labor has more than three votes on council.
The Liberal Party got 24 per cent of the vote – which saw Kellie Marsh elected outright and Paul Rankin elected through preferences.
At the Warilla pre-poll booth on Friday afternoon, Liberal lead candidate Nathan Cattell was confident “people want change”.
He said he thought the party would receive enough votes for at least two members of the Liberal party ticket to be elected.
With a varied field of independents – including existing councillors Peter Moran, Kellie Marsh and Helen Stewart – preferences are going to be very important in deciding the final spots on council.