Nine trains worth of Illawarra commuters heading to Sydney in the morning peak could have to cram onto just three services from this Thursday.
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Likewise, those heading home from the city will have to contend with less than half the number of usual services, if the government switches to the Saturday timetable.
Across the state 1300 services would be cut if train workers begin their ban on overtime, which would be followed by a one-day strike on Monday.
However, just after the government sent out warnings on Tuesday evening, Rail Tram and Bus Union state secretary Alex Claassens said a deal had been reached with Sydney Trains over a new four-year agreement, which could halt the industrial action.
Union members will vote on whether to accept it by lunchtime on Wednesday.
For those travelling from Wollongong to Central, the timetable change would mean only three trains which arrive in the city between 7am and 9.15am and four that leave Central between 4.29 and 7.30pm.
Transport for NSW has warned that “services may be busier than usual” and advised commuters to expect delays.
They have also encouraged employers to talk to staff about working flexibly, taking annual leave, working from home or other locations or changing start and finish times.
Unions strike a deal, but major disruptions may still go ahead
Commuters have been warned to brace for major disruptions to their travel on Thursday despite unions striking a deal over a new pay agreement, which will still have to be voted on by thousands of rail workers.
Just over an hour after the state government said it would be forced to cancel 1300 train services on Thursday, Rail Tram and Bus Union state secretary Alex Claassens said a deal had been reached with Sydney Trains over a new four-year agreement.
That deal will be sent to members overnight to allow them to vote by an email poll on whether to accept it by lunchtime on Wednesday.
If they do accept it, the overtime ban on Thursday would be called off, as would the 24-hour strike planned for Monday.
However, it is likely to come too late to avoid major disruptions on Thursday as the government has already had to push the button on the contingency plans.
Mr Claassens would not reveal the terms of the deal until members had been notified but it is expected to include a 3 per cent pay rise and concessions on overtime conditions.
He said he would not pre-empt his members' call on whether to accept the new deal, which would be up to them.
"There has been some progress made and we now have an offer on the table that the RTBU is prepared to take to our members," Mr Claassens said.
"The negotiations today have gone a long way to address those concerns that we have raised."
"I am hopeful that by lunchtime [on Wednesday] I will have a clear indication from my members as to whether they are prepared to suspend the industrial action."
Mr Claassens also said the Transport Minister needed "to be serious about solving this situation without him throwing bombs into it".
"It is not unusual for the Minister to come out and criticise the union and its membership for the work we do," he said.
Transport Minister Andrew Constance said the deal was a "positive step forward" but he warned "we are not out of the woods yet" because staff still had to vote on the deal.
"It is going to be an incredible challenge for us to plug services come Thursday. I would hope that we could work with the union leadership [on Wednesday] ... to make sure we are well placed to provide as many services as possible," he said.
But he warned that the government had had to "press go" on implementing the equivalent of a Saturday timetable for train services on Thursday.
The deal includes a 2.75 per cent annual pay rise, concessions on overtime, rostering and free travel using Opal cards on the transport network.
The latter includes travel on private buses. Mr Constance said everything that had been agreed to complied with the government's wages policy for public servants.
About 1.3 million passengers travel on Sydney's rail network each weekday, underscoring the extent of the disruptions caused to the city's transport by a rail strike.
About 2900 train services would typically be operated on a Thursday. The implementation of what is effectively a Saturday timetable means just 1600 services will run. The impact of the industrial action will extend beyond suburban services to regional services.
About 500 buses will be put on standby at key locations around Sydney to avoid overcrowding at train stations such as Town Hall and Wynyard in the central city.
The government faces the added challenge a day later on Friday, with hundreds of thousands of people travelling into the central city for Australia Day celebrations.
Mr Claassens said the sticking point in the government's offer were clauses such as those for the master roster, which allow staff to be called in at short notice from leave, the amount of time staff were put on base pay after an incident, and the use of contractors such as cleaners.
Union officials earlier rejected suggestions they had knocked back a one-off $1000 lump sum payment for staff, saying the issue of pay would not be discussed until the conditions had been dealt with. The lump sum payment was part of the government's offer of a 3 per cent annual increase in pay over four years.
On Monday night the state government offered Sydney Trains staff a 3 per cent annual pay rise over the four-year term of a new enterprise agreement, which was described as a final proposal. That includes productivity improvements designed to try to keep the offer within its 2.5 per cent annual cap on public sector salaries.
A 24-hour strike next Monday will cripple the city's transport network a day before students return to school.
Sydney Trains chief executive Howard Collins urged commuters to spread their travel over the peak periods on Thursday to reduce the pressure on the rail network.
The latest talks come a day after 16 people were injured when a Waratah train ploughed into a buffer stop at Richmond station in Sydney's outer west.
Mr Collins said it was still too early to determine the cause of the crash but he emphasised that there was "no indication there is anything wrong" with Sydney Trains' fleet of Waratah trains.
The chaos that has gripped Sydney's rail network comes on the first anniversary of Gladys Berejiklian as the state's premier.
- Matt O'Sullivan, smh.com.au
Kate McIlwain
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
