Tsunami rolls towards Libya

By James Dunn
Updated November 6 2012 - 1:50am, first published March 21 2011 - 9:14am
Tsunami rolls towards Libya
Tsunami rolls towards Libya

We are faced with two disastrous situations, one inflicted by nature, the other man-made. The catastrophic tsunami that hit northern Japan succeeded in pushing the worsening situation in Libya, as well as those in Bahrain and Yemen, into the background - if not for long.Of special concern to me was the natural disaster in Japan, for I have a son and his family in Yokohama, and it was in Japan that I witnessed the catastrophic consequences of the world’s first atomic bombing 65 years ago. What is of overwhelming importance, however, is the huge cost of life caused by the tsunami, and the humanitarian disaster that may result from the worst-case scenario of an uncontrolled meltdown of those nuclear reactors at Fukushima. At worst, the consequences - a massive outpouring of radiation, globally as well as in Japan - may dwarf what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki 65 years ago. Then it cost more than 300,000 lives, while today’s tsunami victims stand at about 20,000.Then, the Japanese, with extraordinary industriousness, faced up to a massive reconstruction task. We can expect them to deal with the rebuilding of those northern Honshu towns and villages in the same spirit and the same energy. But they do need and deserve help from the internation- al community, not least because they have been generous donors, especially to UN budgets and missions, including in East Timor. As for Australia, our own rapid economic growth has been helped by Japan’s remarkable transformation from World War II devastation to the world’s second most powerful economy (until they were nudged aside by China). Unlike China, however, Japan became economically powerful, but remained militarily unthreatening. The cruel lessons of World War II transformed most Japanese into pacifists during the Cold War, to the chagrin of Americans who wanted them play a bigger military role in the then policy of containing communism. Although the recent earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear power station damage are a serious setback, we can expect that these resourceful people will make an early recovery. Meanwhile, less certain is the outcome of the recent political turbulence in the Middle East, in particular the people-power uprisings. In Bahrain, the old order is fighting back. The best hope is in Egypt but the post-Mubarak scene remains unsettled, with conflict between the protesters and military who originally helped them oust the dictator. Particularly worrying is the situation in Libya. The West encouraged the uprising but then failed to give it the necessary backing to halt Gaddafi’s move to crush it. The UN Security Council decision to allow the creation of a no-fly zone may have come too late, for his forces are now said to be in parts of Benghazi. It should have been realised much earlier that the enthusiasm of the rebel army would be no match for the dictator’s well-trained military forces. The first military action by US cruise missiles will have dealt Gaddafi’s military organisation a serious blow, but they can hardly be attacked in Benghazi, putting the civilian population at risk. At this point there is a clear need for ground forces to turn the tide, but there remains a reluctance on the part of the NATO members for this kind of involvement, with the lessons of Afghanistan in mind. Even with the no-fly zone, tragically, Gaddafi’s military operation may be impossible to halt.

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