Looking for a winner in the inaugural $1 million The Gong at Kembla Grange on Saturday? Here's the Mercury's guide to the 16 runners.
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1 MISTER SEA WOLF
Odds: $14. Barrier: 8
Why he can win: Has the highest benchmark with 108 rating. Won the Group 2 Shannon Stakes (1500m) in September.
Why he can't win: Carries big weight.
2 STAR OF THE SEAS
Odds: $7.50 Barrier: 6
Why he can win: The form around Kolding is good enough for me, baby! Was game when third in the Epsom, forget the Flemington flop.
Why he can't win: Too bad last start? Or too bad to be true?
3 NICOLETTA
Odds: $51. Barrier 15
Why she can win: Was doing her best work late when sixth in the Group 2 Hot Danish last start, behind The Gong rivals El Dorado Dreaming (third) and Luvaluva (fifth).
Why she can't win: The horror draw will make life difficult for Tommy Berry.
4 EL DORADO DREAMING
Odds: $5.50 fav. Barrier: 4
Why she can win: A super last 200m in the Hot Danish has the rising four-year-old mare primed for this race. Won Group 1 Sires over 1400m and third in Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) last year.
Why she can't win: Has won just once in 14 career starts.
5 LOOKS LIKE ELVIS
Odds: $23. Barrier: 12
Why he can win: The Queenslander looked the winner for a long way, before being nosed out in the Listed Plate (1800m) at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day.
Why he can't win: Jockey Blaike McDougall could be forced to go back or risk being trapped wide trying to get in on pace.
6 LUVALUVA
Odds: $5.50 fav. Barrier: 5
Why she can win: The eye-catcher flashing home for fifth from last in the Hot Danish. Third up and John Sargent has targeted this race. Won the Kembla Grange Classic last year.
Why she can't win: Has won just four of 25 career starts, a danger of getting too far back and needing luck in the run.
7 MILITARY ZONE
Odds: $7.50. Barrier: 7
Why he can win: Fought hard in the $7.5 million Golden Eagle to finish seventh behind Kolding and has beaten Quackerjack to win the Hawkesbury Guineas in April.
Why he can't win: Untested at 1600m.
8 SIR PLUSH
Odds: $61. Barrier: 13
Why he can win: Was luckless when three lengths sixth in the Goulburn Cup chasing Quackerjack and Noble Boy. Could improve to 1600m.
Why he can't win: Bad draw. Might lack the class.
9 NOBLE BOY
Odds: $7. Barrier: 3
Why he can win: Knows how to win. Claimed seven of eight races in 2018-19, including Country Championships final at Randwick.
Why he can't win: Needs to turn the tables on Quackerjack from the Goulburn Cup.
10 GOODFELLA
Odds: $61. Barrier: 10
Why he can win: Will get the trip. Has form around Quackerjack (third in Goulburn Cup).
Why he can't win: Needs to get in. Would have benefited from a softer track condition.
11 JONKER
Odds: $71. Barrier: 9
Why he can win: Drops 4.5kg on Golden Eagle (1500m) run where he toiled away for eighth.
Why he can't win: Will have to get across on pace, first time at 1600m, might not be up to this.
12 TESTASHADOW (scratched)
13 TAIKOMOCHI
Odds $31. Barrier: 2
Why he can win: Will lead. Loves the 1600m journey. Good second-up form. Has autumn form around Group 1 winner Samadoubt.
Why he can't win: Might look the winner at 300m, but challengers will come from everywhere.
14 ARTICUS
Odds: $51. Barrier: 14
Why he can win: Was a couple of lengths off Star Of The Seas in a BM88 after getting back in the field in May. Second in a Group 3 at Newcastle (1500m) in September.
Why he can't win: Drawn wide. Zero from seven at the mile.
15 QUACKERJACK
Odds: $5.50. Barrier: 11
Why he can win: Was bulletproof in winning the 1400m Goulburn Cup. Was second to Kolding (BM78) in May.
Why he can't win: Unproven at Group or Listed level.
16 TAMARACK
Odds: $71. Barrier: 16
Why he can win: Impressive when lipped out by Cellarman in the Listed Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury three weeks ago.
Why he can't win: Lack of black-type (Group and Listed) form.
17 ASTERIUS
Odds: $12. Barrier: 1
Why he can win: Has won or placed in 11 of 16 starts. Beat Strome in June, who was super-impressive down in grade on The Hunter day at Newcastle.
Why he can't win: Might be swallowed up and outclassed from gate one.
TIPS FOR THE GONG
The $1 million The Gong, Saturday, 4.20pm
Mercury racing analyst Craig Mordey: STAR OF THE SEAS, Luvaluva, El Dorado Dreaming, Noble Boy
Mercury sports editor Tim Barrow: STAR OF THE SEAS, El Dorado Dreaming, Military Zone, Looks Like Elvis.
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