Spring has been characterised by large bush fires, little rain, smoke haze and dust storms, and according to the Bureau of Meteorology there's no end in sight for the hot, dry weather.
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In its outlook for summer, the weather bureau is predicting a warmer and drier than normal season.
For south-east Australia, this means the risk of dust, smoke and fires are likely to continue into the first months of next year.
Fast facts
Summer outlook
- High likelihood of warmer than average days and nights
- High likelihood of drier than average summer
Preliminary spring summary
- One of the five driest springs and 10 warmest springs
- A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records
- Large fires, persistent smoke and dust storms were features of the season
"We have fairly high odds, getting up over 80 per cent, of a drier than normal summer, and we also have very high odds above 80 per cent for most of the state of warmer than normal days and nights for NSW," the bureau's head of long-range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins said.
Dr Watkins said Australia's outlook was influenced by one of the country's main climate drivers, the "Indian Ocean Dipole" or IOD, which is used to describe the difference in sea surface temperature of the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
These sea temperatures affect rainfall and temperature patterns over Australia, and Dr Watkins said the current "positive IOD" was one of the strongest events on record.
"A positive IOD means ... we see less rain-bearing weather systems, and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country," he said.
"The positive IOD means we're also expecting a delayed onset for the northern monsoon, one of the key drivers for tropical rainfall during the summer months. At this stage we're expecting the onset of the northern monsoon by mid-summer, which should see the odds for closer to average rainfall increasing from January and into February."
Dr Watkins said the summer outlook was a reminder for communities to be alert to the potential severe weather risks over the coming months.
"We've already seen significant bushfire activity during spring, and the outlook for drier and warmer than average conditions will maintain that heightened risk over the coming months," he said.
He said the risk of heatwaves was increased, and warned that the dry weather did not reduced the risk of localised flooding related to thunderstorms and cyclones.
As for the Illawarra, summer will begin as it's likely to continue with warm, dry weather forecast next week.
There's a nigh chance of showers in the evening on Satruday, the last day of spring, as well as the chance of a gusty thunderstorm.
But from December 1, the rest of the week will be warm, with temperatures in the low to mid 20s and mostly sunny days.
Kate McIlwain
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
