Illawarra's continuing buoyant property prices in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic defy economic logic. But before I talk about the property data for the Illawarra - let's start with Sydney.
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Greater Sydney house prices are clearly showing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and on business confidence.
Last month, according to the latest Corelogic data, Sydney house prices fell about a half a per cent.
That's a lot. If house prices fall half a per cent a month, you end up losing around 6 per cent over one year.
This fall reflects the momentum in prices over the last three months.
In the three months from March to June Sydney house prices fell about 2.5 per cent - which means that the Sydney house prices have more or less tracked sideways in the first three months of the pandemic before beginning to fall reasonably strongly.
The path followed by Sydney house prices all makes perfect economic sense of course.
Business closure and the downturn in business and economic activity during the closures associated with COVID-19 and restrictions to business activity because of government regulations during the pandemic have all had an impact.
The loss in business and consumer confidence acts to deter buyers, and people worried about being able to meet repayments due to job uncertainty sees more people putting their properties up for sale.
So simple demand and supply analysis would predict what we are seeing - as the net effect of all these is to reduce demand for and increase supply of real estate.
Both these factors would put downward pressure on real estate prices.
The job losses which have been widely reported negatively impact on demand, as people move out of their rental properties (increase in vacancies) which in turn result in falls in rent.
The lower rents result in lower returns on investment properties, and in turn any new buyers will pay less for real estate.
So, the path of Sydney house prices are entirely consistent with the economic effects that we expect as a consequence of the pandemic.
I have taught this basic theory for three decades to students at Sydney University and the University of Wollongong - and it usually does a good job of explaining economic phenomena.
Not so for Illawarra house prices.
The pattern in house prices do not conform to the broad economic theory that I have set out above.
According to Corelogic data, real estate prices increased, yes increased, almost one quarter of 1 per cent last month.
Over the last three months they increased roughly 1 per cent and since March when the pandemic began they increased almost 2 per cent.
House prices and unit prices in the Illawarra show roughly the same pattern.
Both have increased roughly 2 per cent since the pandemic began.
If Sydney house prices are perfectly consistent with economic logic, as I have said, then the pattern in Illawarra house prices completely defies economic logic.
The Illawarra has not been spared from job losses.
Economic activity has suffered and dwelling approvals are down.
There is no macroeconomic data for the region that can be used to support what we are seeing in house prices.
One of the typical theories I have heard to explain the rise in house prices for the Illawarra revolves around the spillover in demand from Sydney.
One of the typical theories I have heard to explain the rise in house prices for the Illawarra revolves around the spillover in demand from Sydney.
The theory explains that excess demand for real estate from Sydney may drive the pattern in real estate prices for the Illawarra.
According to the theory, house prices in the Illawarra remain cheap and the quality of life in the Illawarra is so good that people sell up in Sydney and head to the Illawarra, or new buyers opt to buy and live in the Illawarra rather than Sydney.
While this could have a temporary effect on propping up Illawarra real estate prices, as the negative economic effects of COVID-19 continue to take hold, then that avenue of demand will also close down.
It's great news that Illawarra house prices are in one sense defying economic logic and not just holding up - but increasing.
However, it's unlikely that this will be sustained.
As night follows day, what is happening to Sydney prices must also happen to Illawarra house prices.
This is one instance when I hope I am wrong.
The next few months will tell.
Alex Frino is Professor of Economics and Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Global Strategy) at the University of Wollongong.