Welcome to The Debate, where the Mercury sport team discusses the big issues in Illawarra, national and international sport.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
This week, Mercury sports writer JOSH BARTLETT and sports editor TIM BARROW discuss who will win the NRL grand final.
Penrith have lost one game all season, while Melbourne could be preparing to farewell representative star hooker Cameron Smith.
Barrow: How are Melbourne favourites here Josh?
It's purely on reputation. Of course the Storm are always hard to beat, but have a look at Penrith.
The Panthers haven't lost since round five in June when we were all still worried if the season would be completed due to the threat of Covid-19.
Now here we are, they're on a 17-game winning streak. Some may consider this a 2003-style fairytale, but I'll go a step further and just say they're the best team in the NRL.
Unless Melbourne jump them early like they did to Canberra - and we know how hard they are to catch when they play from in front - Penrith will win.
Bartlett: Ah, Baz. You seem to underestimate two men - Craig Bellamy and Cameron Smith.
Love him or hate him, Bellamy has an incredible ability to get his side peaking at the right time.
And that seems to be the case in 2020. Yes, the Panthers have clearly been the best side this season.
But the Storm have been quietly going about their business, only dropping three games since mid-June (that's including a third string Melbourne side losing to the Dragons).
And then there is Smith.
There is a reason why he is the most maligned player in recent NRL history, but he is one hell of a player.
There will of course be speculation all week about the experienced hooker's future, with the media playing up the fairytale finish.
Can your stomach handle this circus, mate?
Barrow: It's a classic diversion tactic.
In 2010, Wayne Bennett stood there and did one-on-one interviews with every reporter in the room one-on-one after the annual grand final breakfast.
And we all know that until coaches had to do weekly press conferences, Wayne would pick his moments to talk at all.
Why did he do it?
To take the pressure of the occasion - the years of Dragons finals failure - off the players and make it all about the Bennett effect.
And it worked.
Now here we are talking about whether Smith being chaired off after beating the Raiders was a certain sign he's retiring or not.
Why would they do it if he was playing on next season?
The problem is the flow-on effect.
Look at Harry Grant, on loan from the Storm at the Tigers and weighing his options for next year, depending on whether Smith will return.
Grant earned the Dally M 'rookie of the year' award and would attract some big offers on the open market. Do you think Smith is in his rights, as one of the game's great players, to make an announcement when it suits him?
Or should the Storm have invited the 'do it for Cameron' factor, if he had already come out and said he was retiring?
Bartlett: If Smith doesn't hang up the boots, then chairing up the field after winning a preliminary final is one of the weirdest things I've seen this year.
And that's a big statement in 2020. I'm kind of surprised the Storm haven't publicly drawn on the "do it for Cameron" angle for inspiration - it seems like the perfect motivation.
But maybe that is exactly what is happening internally.
The hype around Smith's future has been swirling for close to 12 months now, which almost has to be an NRL record.
I guess we'll find out more around 10pm on Sunday evening.
But, of course, it's not just about Smith.
This Melbourne side has plenty of attacking weapons. Another Cameron - Munster - is ever dangerous while Papenhuyzen and Addo-Carr have been deadly this year.
And then there is the Storm's strong forward pack, led by the likes of Christian Welch and Felise Kaufusi.
Enough about Melbourne - who wins it for Penrith this Sunday?
Barrow: They'll need the workrate from Api Koroisau and Isaah Yeo, as well as a line break or two from him or Stephen Crichton and the attacking strike from Dylan Edwards and Josh Mansour.
However, with enough go-forward and an even share of possession, it rests in Nathan Cleary's hands.
When Ivan Cleary came back to coach Penrith again, the doubts remained about how it would work with his son at halfback, but Nathan has become the dominant playmaker the Panthers - and for that matter NSW - need. I've also been hugely impressed by five-eighth Jarome Luai, who could be the other game-breaker for them.
Aside from the game, it's also a celebration of the NRL's ability to ensure the season went ahead. While almost every sport was considering if it was possible to resume, the NRL made it happen and became an international leader.
With NSW already in camp, are you excited for this end-of-season State of Origin series? Or is it an after-thought?
Bartlett: It's funny, when I first heard about Origin being held in November, I wasn't a fan.
But as we inch closer, I'm starting to get excited.
The only downside is that we're going to miss seeing a lot of top players in action this year due to injuries.
On the flip side, it's opened the door for some new faces to make an impression. It's great to see Dragons pair Cameron McInnes and Zac Lomax get the call-up, while Luke Keary is well overdue to make his Origin debut.
I'm sure there will be some exciting inclusions from Penrith named in that NSW squad once the grand final is over.
But, before that, we have the big dance to look forward to. So who are you tipping and by how much, Baz? And who will win the Churchill Medal?
Barrow: In a thriller, Panthers by 7. Nathan Cleary for the medal. You?
Bartlett: I think we're all hoping for a thriller. Storm by 4, Munster for the medal.