Welcome to The Debate, where the Mercury sport team discusses the big issues in Illawarra, national and international sport. This week, sports editor TIM BARROW and sports writer JORDAN WARREN look at the Dragons doomed NRL season what they can gain out of the final month of the competition, looking ahead to 2023.
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Barrow: It's the time of year where teams like St George Illawarra still entertain the mathematical possibility of making NRL finals.
And as a journalist and sports editor, I deal with words, not numbers, but it's fairly clear with four games left, the Dragons are done, given they're two games and a substantial chunk of for-and-against out of the top eight. There's a fair bit to unpack here.
Tariq Sims is banned for four weeks, so his time at the club is finished, his next NRL game will be for Melbourne.
Anthony Griffin is under fire, as assistant coaches Peter Gentle and Mat Head have been axed to allow the Dragons to reset next year.
Now, you're a both a talented young sports writer Jordan and Sharks fan, so what did you make of Cronulla's victory to end St George Illawarra's season? And is it fair to criticise young fullback Tyrell Sloan for the errors he made in the 25 minutes he played in the 24-18 loss, after playing so little first grade this year?
Warren: I thought the Dragons played well against the Sharks to be fair, especially with Sims getting sent to the sin bin so early on in the contest. I think Griffin pretty much summed it up post game saying the team didn't execute its plays well enough.
As for Sloan, when you make mistakes in first grade, you are going to be criticised. Sloan will know that himself and he will be disappointed in his performance, but if I were a Dragons fan, I would be asking the question, why put a young player under so much pressure to win a game for your team?
Surely the side can afford to take the load off the shoulders of Sloan in a side that features experienced campaigners Ben Hunt, Andrew McCullough and Jack De Belin?
But at the end of the day it is the situation the Dragons find themselves in all too often. We've mentioned Sims a couple of times already, Tim. Just how upsetting is it for him that his time at the Dragons will be concluding in such underwhelming fashion?
Barrow: It's a difficult situation for Sims, he's been an outstanding player for the Dragons. He was a wrecking ball in the 2018 elimination final, scoring three tries when the Dragons smashed Brisbane 48-18 and was one of NSW's best in last year's State of Origin series, before being dropped after game one this year.
Had he gone to the judiciary and lost, he would have been unavailable for round one next season for the Storm, so there would have been some conversations there about whether it was worthwhile challenging it.
Being his third offence, it's hard to have it downgraded, though I don't think it was a send-off either.
With Sims moving on anyway, the last four games offer Griffin a chance to try a few things in the forwards and see what sticks for next year.
Cody Ramsey showed enough this year before he was injured to earn the No.1 jersey for round one next year, so in terms of planning, Sloan has a battle to show he belongs in the first grade team.
Having said that, it's absolutely ridiculous for Sloan to be thrown out as the Hail Mary play chasing the game in the last 25 minutes, when he hasn't had regular NRL game time.
It knocks his confidence and his image with the fans, making errors while trying to force the play to make an impact. I just don't feel like I've learned much about the Dragons this season.
Ramsey and Talatau Amone have shown promising signs for the future, Moses Suli is an imposing figure and Ben Hunt continues to lead the charge, but with Andrew McCullough in the twilight of his career, they need some pace and punch around the ruck.
They extended Griffin's career to take the pressure off him this year, but he's in the same situation for 2023, with about 10 rounds to show the club is making strides to becoming a top eight force. In contrast, the Sharks are up there in third, in Dapto's favourite son Craig Fitzgibbon's first season as a head coach. Are they the team to land a blow on Penrith in the finals?
Warren: The Sharks record doesn't look good coming up against the Panthers but again no teams in the NRL can say they have a good record against the Panthers, except Paramatta, who have beaten them twice this year. But the Sharks have been impressive, especially in the halves with Nicho Hynes proving to be one of the buys of the season and Matt Moylan having a stellar-season.
The forward pack is also one that can match it with any side in the league. Former Panther-turned Sharks skipper, Wade Graham will be looking to knock off his former sides when it comes finals time. The Sharks also have a favourable draw in the last four games of the season, coming up against Wests Tigers, the Sea Eagles, the Bulldogs and the Knights to round out the regular season so all things going well the side should go into finals with form on their side. It could be a real upset on the cards with many seeing Fitzgibbon's side as the team who will join Penrith in the big dance at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Can you see any other side in the decider this season Tim?
Barrow: Jarome Luai is resting his knee, Nathan Cleary is suspended for the ugly tackle on Parramatta's Dylan Brown and after the loss to the Eels people are arguing the Panther might have the wobbles? Please.
The Panthers might drop their games against the Storm, Rabbitohs and Cowboys on the run in, but it will not matter, because they'll win the minor premiership anyway, they are such a machine and their system so effective that a rested Luai and Cleary will come back in and dominate the finals series.
The Sharks are the danger, with Nicho Hynes, Jesse Ramien and Cameron McInnes all there as key weapons. They'll need William Kennedy back though, who is an underrated fullback in the competition. The Cowboys defence holds up well enough to make a run deep into the finals and the Storm can still fire a shot when it counts. Then there's Parramatta, they've shown they can beat Penrith, but they're just as likely to lose to someone else trying to make a grand final along the way. Final question. Can the Raiders still make the finals, or is the top eight decided and just the order to play for?
Warren: The top eight does look all but decided, but you can't rule out the Raiders to pip either the Roosters or the Broncos for the final spots in the finals positions.
If you look at the run-in of all of those three sides, with four games left in the season, the Raiders have to play four sides outside the top eight, the Roosters have to play three sides within the top eight and the Broncos will play two sides in the top eight. So looking on paper, the Raiders have the best chance of making the eight out of those sides and then from there I'll stick my neck out and say the Roosters will round out the finals positions, just due to their experience and know-how of finals football in recent years, failing to miss out since 2016.
The Broncos are currently two points ahead of the Roosters and four points ahead of the Raiders, but I'm saying Brisbane are the most vulnerable and could yet miss out.
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