The national weather bureau has predicted a "wetter than usual" spring likely for eastern Australia, but you shouldn't put the swimsuit away yet according to a University of Wollongong expert.
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The Bureau of Meteorology's latest three-month climate outlook has used modelling to predict a 50 per cent chance of La Nina (and the rain that comes with it) returning later this year, even as early as September.
"Above median September to November rainfall is very likely for much of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland (chances are greater than 80 per cent)," the Bureau stated.
"Most of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland has more than double the normal chance of unusually high spring rainfall (in the wettest 20 per cent of all September to November periods over 1981 to 2018)."
Climate expert Ben Henley (of UOW's Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future research program) said the see-saw effect of La Nina and El Nino was a natural part of the climate system, but climate change had made it harder to predict what's coming next with complete accuracy.
"We are really confident in certain things - for example, a future temperature rise and the impacts of various extreme events - but other things, the forecasts of how those models say the climate's going to change don't agree with each other," he said.
Dr Henley said if a wet La Nina pattern was to return it would be for the third summer in a row - which has happened before as seen from 1998 to 2001 (which began with devastating floods).
Across two days of August 24 years ago, nearly 400 millimetres of rain fell across the Illawarra - a rainfall total already seen multiple times this year.
"It's not something that anyone on the east coast wants to hear," Dr Henley said.
"It's a possibility at this stage, it's not a given, but the models are starting to appear slightly more in favour of that occurring.
"But it's still quite likely that we may have a neutral year [neither extremely wet nor dry]."
A few more weeks of data will help forecasters, he said, and estimated experts should have a clearer understanding of our weather by the end of September.
As for the following summer? Dr Henley said it's very unlikely for a fourth dip into a wet La Nina for 2023/24 but anything could happen.
"Our models are still not very clear about what's coming, even in the next few months, let alone another year and a few months time."
On a positive note, both Wollongong and Albion Park are predicted to be sunny or partly sunny for the next week.
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