While Labor swept to power by 9pm last night and turned the South Coast from Port Hacking to the Victorian border red, there remains one strip of grey between Bass Point and the Shoalhaven River.
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Kiama remains too close to call and with no counting occurring on Sunday, any result will have to wait until Monday.
Currently, Labor's Katelin McInerney is ahead on the two candidate preferred, with 51.9 per cent of the vote to Independent Gareth Ward's 48.1 per cent after preferences.
Mr Ward picked up more first preference votes, 9179 over Ms McInerney's 8243, however with strong flows from The Greens' candidate Tonia Gray, Ms McInerney leads.
"It's too close to call, and we probably won't know for a few days or week," Ms McInerney said. "But what we can see is that the community wants change."
Just over 40 per cent of the votes have been counted.
Mr Ward has claimed he has a strong chance of closing that gap, with Mr Ward well ahead on postal votes, 1066 to McInernery's 637, and Mr Ward also ahead on early votes tallied so far, however only 318 early votes have been added to the NSW Electoral Commission's Virtual Tally Room so far.
If Ms McInerney were able to flip the seat it would be a major win for her and return Kiama to the Labor party after Mr Ward took the traditionally Labor seat in 2011 and increased his majority even as the state swung back to Labor, coming into the current election with a 12 point margin.
The battle for the seat has been hard fought, with Ms McInerney one of the first Labor candidates in NSW to declare their candidacy in August last year. Ms McInerney's campaign drew the in person support of Premier-elect Chris Minns and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese - a largesse that was not shown to other Illawarra Labor candidates, besides Maryanne Stuart.
The pair have gone head to head on housing, transport infrastructure and Mr Ward's record in parliament but hanging above the contest has been the criminal charges against Mr Ward, a hearing for which was delayed until after the election.
Mr Ward has consistently denied the charges of sexual and indecent assault against two people, since they were levelled by the police in 2022.
Making the race more complicated was the parachuting of Melanie Gibbons, who was dumped from the southern Sydney electorate of Holsworthy after she failed to be pre-selected by her local branch.
Ms Gibbons was supported by former Premier Dominic Perrottet, however fell behind The Greens candidate on first preferences.
The Illawarra's small cohort of Liberal faithful will have to drive to Cronulla to be anywhere near safe Liberal territory, after Labor's resounding election victory in the Illawarra and South Coast.
Labor's Liza Butler defeated the Liberal's Luke Sikora, who was hoping to hold on to the South Coast after long-time member Shelley Hancock retired. Paul Scully and Ryan Park in respectively strengthened their hold on Labor's heartland with swings of 0.9 per cent in Wollongong and 6.8 per cent in Keira.
Maryanne Stuart made it third time lucky in Heathcote, knocking out incumbent Lee Evans after a boundary distribution in her favour, which moved the seat further south, taking in areas around Bulli while dropping parts of the Sutherland Shire. However, Ms Stuart went well ahead of the notional 1.7 margin, receiving a swing to Labor of 8.2 per cent, above the statewide swing of 6.2 per cent.
In Shellharbour, Anna Watson retained her seat after a challenge from Shellharbour Mayor Chris Homer failed to make a major impact. Mr Homer picked up 32.8 per cent of the vote after preferences, representing a 1.2 per cent swing away from Labor, and roughly equivalent to the split when Ms Watson faced Liberal challenger Shane Bitschkat in 2019.
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