The Illawarra can expect a hotter, drier summer than average as a result of the ongoing El Nino event.
The latest climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology shows the chance of exceeding the average maximum temperatures for the three-month periods spanning November to January and December to February is higher than 80 per cent.
The BOM also says that the Illawarra is at least two times as likely as normal to experience unusually warm maximum temperatures from December to February.
This means average daytime temperatures across summer higher than 26.7 degrees in Wollongong and Albion Park, and 26 degrees in Kiama.
Minimum temperatures are likewise expected to be higher than average this summer, with an even greater chance of unusually warm nights from November through to February.
The Illawarra is at least three times as likely as normal to see unusually high minimum temperatures from late spring to the end of summer.
Warmer than usual days and nights are expected across almost all of Australia
Meanwhile the region is one-and-a-half to two times as likely as usual to have a very dry summer.
Large parts of Australia can expect below-average rainfall, except for parts of the south-east of the country.
The BOM says climate drivers influencing its outlook for late spring and summer include El Nino and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean and atmosphere phenomenon.
When these occur at the same time, the BOM says, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread.
"The biggest drying impacts of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are typically experienced during spring," BOM senior hydrologist Dr Paul Feikema said.
"The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to continue until at least December, with climate models forecasting the El Nino event to continue in early Autumn 2024."
Record warm ocean temperatures globally and a warming Australian climate, which has risen about 1.48 degrees since 1910 and increases the frequency of extreme heat events, also have an inflience.
It will come after a dry and warm October.
The weather station at Bellambi has recorded 24.4 millimetres of rain in the first 27 days of the month, just 37 per cent of the typical rainfall for the month.
Albion Park has received 15.4 millimetres - in contrast to the October average of 58.6 - while Kiama has had 41.4 millimetres, when it would typically get over 67 millimetres.
Daytime temperatures have been very much above average in October.
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Natalie Croxon
Reporter at the Illawarra Mercury, mostly covering social affairs. Previously of the Bendigo Advertiser, Northern Daily Leader and Quirindi Advocate. Our Watch award winner.
Reporter at the Illawarra Mercury, mostly covering social affairs. Previously of the Bendigo Advertiser, Northern Daily Leader and Quirindi Advocate. Our Watch award winner.
