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A new report shows where future jobs are most likely to come from to lower unemployment and create a more sustainable economy with fewer work commuters.
Research undertaken by Illawarra Regional Information Service (IRIS) identifies realistic employment targets in various sectors and the likely negative growth in others.
IRIS executive director Simon Pomfret said the Transition Illawarra report provided a picture of what Illawarra’s employment might look like in 10 and 20 years.
The region contributes $15.5 billion in gross regional product and provides employment locally for almost 100,000 people.
But Mr Pomfret said that as the population grew, it was important to know where jobs were most likely to come from and what industries should be supported to continue to give the region a competitive advantage.
He said the report estimated an additional 18,000 jobs would need to be created in various sectors by 2031 to lower unemployment down to the state level and increase labour participation towards the national level.
He said the decline in manufacturing, which had kept Illawarra’s employment growth at half that of Newcastle and Australia generally in recent years, was still going to have negative jobs growth but large net increases could be realistically targeted in healthcare and social assistance (6433 jobs), education and training (3578 jobs), accommodation and food services (2745 jobs), finance and insurance services (1846 jobs), public administration and safety (1696 jobs), professional, scientific & technical services (1220 jobs) and construction (988) jobs.
Other sectors such as transport and storage, manufacturing and agriculture would continue to have negative jobs growth but the 18,000 jobs realistically targeted was close to aspirational growth.
‘‘If you want to be able to reduce the need for people to commute, you would have to add another 10,000 jobs on top of that.’’
Mr Pomfret said the figures related to actual jobs in the Illawarra which accounted for about 80 per cent of the total workforce (about 120,000).
The report shows 17,700 workers living in the Illawarra (16.6per cent) commute to Sydney and about 3 per cent elsewhere.
Mr Pomfret said some things were changing.
For example, hospitality had been a big growth area but that was mostly to service the local market and was likely to peak unless more happened in the tourism sector to attract more people to the city.
Mr Pomfret said though projections indicated manufacturing would continue to fall, with a net loss of 2854 positions, that should not be viewed as a fait accompli.
The competitive advantages that the Illawarra held in manufacturing needed to be retained.
‘‘We have got this great skills base here,’’ he said.
Many sectors, even the growing ones, had their challenges.
One that grabbed his attention was the information, communication and technology sector.
‘‘It was a surprise there was not too much employment growth happening,’’ he said.
Mr Pomfret said governments provided incentives for employment growth in various sectors and suggested having something to sell and export outside the region was also important.
Industries such as aged care and education would continue to grow with the population, but there was also a case to keep supporting industries that gave the region a unique competitive advantage, such as its availability of high skill sets in manufacturing, he said.
‘‘That’s probably an area we need to revisit in terms of sustainability for this region’s economy.
‘‘While jobs are still being generated in services it is very important to have an export industry...to bring more income into the area. I think tourism is another one with more potential.’’
Mr Pomfret said Shell Cove Marina was one area where tourism and retail jobs would be created.
‘‘It is going to be a mini destination. That is what we need to create to get people to stay.’’