It's only November and plenty of people are already willing to write off the Dragons ahead of the 2015 season.
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Some of the most vehement doomsdayers are even predicting that they’ll bring home the wooden spoon in Paul McGregor’s first season as head coach.
They’ve already lost one marquee name in Brett Morris and this week fellow Blues Origin rep Trent Merrin rejected the biggest offer the Dragons have ever made a forward. Add Gerard Beale and under 20s star Jack Bird to the departure lounge and the situation sours in the eyes of Dragons fans even further.
How a team that’s gone three straight years without making the finals ever found itself as much as $500,000 over the salary cap is a legitimate question.
It’s not a situation of McGregor’s making, but it’s the card he’s been dealt as a rookie coach in his tough first season. He’ll probably need all three years of his contract to fully turn it around, but that hardly makes 2015 a write-off.
Given the club’s shoe-string budget and how bare the NRL open market is come October, McGregor and new recruitment guru Peter Mullholland are undoubtedly relying on a few rocks turning into diamonds. But a dispassionate look at the ins and outs doesn’t paint as dour a picture as many would have you believe. In fact, when it’s really broken down, the case can be made that the Dragons actually boast more depth to handle the ups and downs of an NRL campaign than it has for a number of years – certainly more than they did in 2014.
No-one – Canterbury fans aside – is going to enjoy watching Morris run around in a Bulldogs jersey next year. On face value Brett is a huge loss for the club, but what shouldn’t be forgotten is that he wanted to leave. The Dogs offered him good coin and the chance to play alongside his twin. Only the most hardened fans would begrudge him that chance from what may well be his last NRL contract.
For a club in salary-cap strife, it was a no-brainer.
The Dragons won’t be the only club forced to take a punt on a rookie winger in 2015. If Eto Nabuli gets the nod, his 50 tries in two seasons in the NSW Cup make him a fair bet against some of the others.
Likewise, Beale’s departure hardly leaves the club light for centres, even with Josh Dugan’s likely return to fullback. Peter Mata’utia, Dylan Farrell, Charly Runciman and now Dane Nielsen (all of whom can also play wing) will all be vying for spots in a back line that already includes Dugan, Gareth Widdop, Benji Marshall and Jason Nightingale.
The recruitment of Nielsen, George Rose, Heath L’Estrange and Kris Keating has raised a few eyebrows, but between them they boast 413 NRL games, 25 finals appearances, six grand finals and four premierships.
Is L’Estrange really less qualified to play the role of understudy to Mitch Rein than Shane Pumipi was in 2014?
Is Kris Keating – who just two seasons ago steered the Bulldogs to a grand final – really that bad a back-up option for a club that already boasts Widdop and Marshall in the halves? Remember, it was a role filled by Michael Witt and Sam Williams last year.
Rose lives in a good paddock, but is anyone expecting him to churn out 80-minute performances? If the club can add Russell Packer and just one of twin monsters - Rory O’Brien or Rulon Nutira - the Dragons will boast the size they’ve lacked in the middle for the past three seasons. Are they a worse bet than Jack Stockwell, Matt Groat and Josh Ailomai, who have been let go?
They’re not draining the coffers on modest one and two-year deals, leaving the club capable of landing some big-name signings for 2016.
No-one is suggesting they’ll be premiers or premiership contenders, but a top eight finish – the club’s first in four years – is quite possible. At the very least we should reserve judgment until after a ball has been kicked in 2015.
