A major electricity grid report that leaves out any mention of significant offshore wind electricity generation outside of Victoria has been slammed as a century out of date.
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Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its draft 2024 Integrated System Plan.
The plans are updated every two years, to guide government investment in electricity generation and transmission projects, based on forecast demand.
Under the most likely "step change" scenario, the 2024 plan forecasts an earlier exit of coal generators than previous updates, predicting that 90 per cent of coal-fired power plants would close by 2035, and all would close by 2038, five years earlier than the 2022 report predicted.
The baseload power that coal provides the grid will be replaced by onshore wind and solar energy, along with batteries and pumped hydro for storage, and gas when all else fails.
"Our updated analysis shows that Australia's coal power stations are likely to close earlier than planned, and Australians are electrifying their homes and businesses at a faster rate," AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said.
But outside of Victoria, where the state government has set a target for offshore wind generation, the plan makes little mention of offshore wind generation, including in the Illawarra.
Maps showing where power generation will occur do not include any offshore wind projects in NSW, while when calculating the generation capacity of renewable energy zones in NSW, the report notes that "no offshore wind is yet forecast for New South Wales".
This is despite the Illawarra REZ attracting $35 billion worth of investment in offshore wind projects alone during the registration of interest phase.
UOW energy expert Ty Christopher said the energy market regulator was applying out of date thinking to where the market was headed.
"AEMO persist in applying 20th century thinking to the 21st century grid that's already out there," he said.
Mr Christopher said AEMO had previously underestimated the take-up of rooftop solar, to the point where it is now expected to provide the largest contribution to power needs by source, and the lack of inclusion of offshore wind led to an over-reliance on gas generation.
"AEMO's last published ISP relied on an ongoing presence of gas generation in the grid for 40 to 50 years from now. So if they persist with that and or turn up the wick on gas, then, no, you don't need offshore wind, because you're burning gas instead," he said.
"The question is what carbon footprint do you want."
An AEMO spokesperson said offshore wind had advantages but was more costly than its onshore counterpart.
"In this report, AEMO notes that offshore wind can drive generation diversity, capable of capturing stronger, more consistent wind than onshore turbines," the spokesperson said.
"However, offshore wind is an emerging industry in Australia, competing against onshore wind, which is lower cost."
AEMO also threw cold water on any significant role from the Illawarra Renewable Energy Zone.
The report notes that while the intended network capacity for the REZ is approximately 1000 MW, "modelling outcomes indicate a low likelihood that significant investment in [variable renewable energy] and transmission infrastructure will be optimally required in the next 20 years".
"While the ISP found there is limited potential for onshore resources in this REZ, it is possible that projects could be developed," the AEMO spokesperson said.
Mr Christopher noted that since the registration of interest process conducted in the Illawarra in mid 2022, EnergyCo, the NSW body leading the rollout of REZs around NSW, had been focused elsewhere in the state.
"AEMO's inclusion of that predicted generation is reflective more of how uncertain it is, at this point in time, due to a lack of attention that's been paid by EnergyCo and the NSW state government."
AEMO will consider feedback on the draft plan before a final version is published in mid 2024.
