The build up to the Stradbroke Handicap continues with the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1350m) on Saturday as part of the Brisbane Racing Carnival.
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The Punters Show's Aaron Macey and Matt Taylor went head-to-head to find the winner.
MT: Another Saturday, another Group 1 at Doomben. They sure know how to string out a carnival!
AM: They sure do, it’s been a good start though and good to see the Sydney form holding strong as always.
MT: Patriotic as ever. Shame I don't think that principle will apply next Wednesday night. Anyway on to the racing mate and we look to be on a good surface. The rail moves out to four-metre position, how do you think that will influence the day?
AM: From all reports, the four-metre rail is the fairest position at Doomben, giving all horses the chance to lead or run-on and more times than not the best horse winning.
MT: That's all we can ask for. We're here to talk about the Doomben 10,000 so we'd best mention the market first. Azkadellia is the $2.80 favourite, from Delectation and Fell Swoop at $6 and Dothraki and Music Magnate at $7. Relatively congested then behind the favourite and its only right we talk about her first. She's already a Group 1 winner, can she add another one to her resume this weekend?
AM: She can certainly win, but at her current price I will be happy to be betting around her. She is a classy mare, but I feel Ciaron Maher has got her set for one race and that is the Stradbroke. I would assume she will take plenty of improvement out of this run and be a little soft on Saturday. Also, even though she has the Group 1 win, it was a very average field and feel she will have to go better again to be winning here.
MT: Do you think drawing barrier 10 has had any influence on her price? She would have gone back but she now looks certain to have to circle them which is very hard to do at Doomben.
AM: I don’t think so, as I feel she is already short and was always going to go back.
MT: Behind her in the market is a 'wall of horses' tightly bunched together. Saddlecloths one and two - which incidentally have drawn barriers two and one respectively - are Delectation and Fell Swoop. Where do you think they stand in this field?
AM: I think Delectation was the better run of the two in the Group 1 BTC Cup last start, hitting the line strongly when blocked for runs in the straight. He would have likely finished alongside the winner with clear running.
MT: I agree. Fell Swoop has appeared pretty flat in his two Queensland runs to my eye and I'm not sure he's going as well as he was earlier in the autumn. Delectation is one of those 'hard-to-catch' horses. He'll be back there with Azkadellia and will likely be on her inside so will have a fair bit more traffic to negotiate if he is going to win. What about the two at $7 Aaron, Dothraki and Music Magnate?
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AM: Dothraki was a great run last start and has certainly furnished into a good sprinter. But I do get the feeling he is a better short course sprinter so may get found out over the final 100m. I was taken with the Music Magnate’s run last start. I wasn’t overly happy with the ride but in the end has worked out a perfect ‘bring-on’ run for this race. He is a better horse ridden with a sit and he should get that on Saturday. If he finds himself with a bit of cove just behind the leading pair, I think he will be the horse to beat.
MT: Interesting call there mate. I share your concern with Dothraki – he’s had one run above 1200m in the last 24 months and he was disappointing that day. I’ve got Azkadellia on top but I take your point about Music Magnate and will probably save on him. As you mention, he will likely follow the pace-setters Two Blue and Divine Centuri across from the deep early and settle in a prime stalking position. He’ll be in the finish for sure. What about others in double figures mate, anything for the punters to consider?
AM: I think Hooked is the best of the roughies and is a bit of an x-factor horse. He has never really been one of mine but I have plenty of respect for the stable and he has been competitive in similar grade to this. His trials have only been fair for mine but they were without his winkers that he does race in.
MT: Not enough to convince me mate. I can’t fault Azkadellia and while tomorrow is not grand final day I expect her to stamp her authority on the carnival with a win. I will be saving on Music Magnate but I take it you’ll be backing him one out?
AM: My play for the race is to back Music Magnate on the each-way basis. If he can lob forward with cover, I will be surprised and disappointed to see him miss a place.
This article first appeared on The Punters Show