Today's exclusive poll showing Labor is on the nose locally should be no great surprise to the party hierarchy.At a state level, this Government has been a rabble, with constant internal battles for power and two leaders - premiers - dumped in as many years. Had those we surveyed given our Labor MPs anything other than a bloody nose we would have been surprised.At a local level, the Wollongong corruption scandal has also taken the wind out of Labor's sails. Although no local MPs were named as persons of interest in the Independent Commission Against Corruption's public hearings, the Labor affiliations and caucusing of Wollongong City councillors did come into sharp focus. The hearings cast a dim light on party politics in local government - and the shame this has brought on our city should not be forgotten.Kiama MP Matt Brown is well-known for losing his pants but now he faces losing his seat. Although widely regarded as a hard-working local member, our figures suggest he faces an uphill struggle.The other results seem to say more about the constituency than the members. Keira MP David Campbell, who has a relatively good profile for a state Labor politician, is on a knife-edge, while Lylea McMahon, who is best known for parroting the party line, has bounced back in popularity.For its part, the State Opposition is licking its lips over Kiama and must be keen to have a go at the northern Illawarra seat of Heathcote held by Labor's Paul McLeay. The Keneally government, or whatever it will be then, is expected to get rolled in the March 2011 state election. However, the greatest danger for Labor in this region might prove to be in the years beyond.The Illawarra is changing rapidly in many regards, including socially and politically. We are less blue collar than we once were and Labor will not be able to rely on generational voting patterns with new voters more fickle.This could spell real heartache in the Labor heartland.