Wind farm developer Oceanex says it expects the Illawarra offshore wind zone to be pushed out to 20km offshore, following a major scale-back of a zone declared off the coast of Victoria.
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The Southern Ocean zone, off Warrnambool, was declared on Wednesday by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, its length slashed by about 80 per cent on the proposal put out to consultation.
At about 1030 square kilometres, it's one-fifth the size of the original proposal, and no longer includes part of South Australia.
Oceanex chief operating officer Emily Scivetti said this reflected a "robust" consultation process.
She expected a reduction if the Illawarra zone was declared, down from 1461 square kilometres, would be begin 20km offshore, reflecting Cunningham MP Alison Byrnes' submission on the Illawarra zone.
The zone put to consultation in the Illawarra started about 10km offshore, stretching from Wombarra to Gerringong.
"Alison Byrnes ... came up with seven recommendations from her public-facing consultation," Ms Scivetti said.
"The first recommendation was to reduce the area from 10km [offshore], pushing it out to 20km.
"If that happened, we would expect the Illawarra ... possible declared area, to be close to 1000 square kilometres."
In the Southern Ocean, concerns had been raised by South Australian industry and government about the impact on the rock lobster fishery and on the Bonney Upwelling, a prominent natural nutrient cycle credited with sustaining much marine life.
Mr Bowen said in a statement the new shape took account of these, as well as the Aboriginal heritage value of nearby Deen Maar Island, and no longer included part of the SA coast.
"The declared area works around the Bonney Upwelling, Deen Maar Island and shipping routes, taking into account the environmental, cultural heritage and economic significance of these areas," Mr Bowen said.
The Mercury asked Mr Bowen's office how community feedback informed the Southern Ocean changes, and whether other offshore wind zones were likely to be scaled back. We did not receive a response.
Ms Scivetti said there may be room for two different operators to build 2GW wind farms within a reduced size Illawarra zone - while the smaller zone would still be enough for two developers' wind farms - suiting Oceanex's plans.
"We think that you can fit a two gigawatt offshore wind zone in an area less than 500 square kilometres," she said.
"So [a] 1000 sq km area would lend itself to two sites capable of potentially generating two gigawatts each.
"You can still work within a smaller footprint. It just means you have to optimise your site to do that.
"Proponents have to decide how big they want their offshore wind farm and then also where they want their offshore wind farm. We might see two different developers win feasibility licenses off the coast, we just don't know what the declared area looks like."
Ms Scivetti said she was "really encouraged" by the Victoria zone being declared.
"It means that there's a pipeline which means potentially a sustainable, vibrant industry - which ultimately means jobs for region," she said.