Forensic psychiatrist and medical historian Robert M Kaplan is of the opinion the coronavirus pandemic will not last that much longer.
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But that's where the good news ends.
The University of Wollongong expert, who is well known for his work studying the Spanish Flu and Encephalitis lethargica epidemics, fears an epidemic is just around the corner.
Professor Kaplan said if history was to be believed, we could be dealing with another epidemic in a few years.
"There is no such thing as a completely new epidemic. They always have the same elements or some elements of past epidemics," he said.
"A famous archaeologist once said there are three things in life that you can be certain about - death, taxes and infectious diseases - which I agree with."
The Spanish Flu and Encephalitis lethargica (sleeping sickness) epidemics lasted from 1919 to 1925.
"When they looked back they found these epidemics occurred every 80 to 100 years, so it is just about time we might have another epidemic. I'd be very curious if this suddenly sneaks up behind the coronavirus," Prof Kaplan said.
"I don't think it will last a long time [months rather than years] and it wouldn't surprise me if it clears the way for another epidemic.
"And we've got the historical evidence of Encephalitis lethargica to back that point up."
Prof Kaplan said there were some notable differences between the current COVID-19 crisis and past major epidemics such as the Spanish Flu (pneumonic influenza).
"The Spanish Flu killed more people in history than any other war. The estimate is 50 to 100 million people died," he said.
Australia, compared to other countries fared relatively well but the flu still infected as much as 290,000 people in NSW and killed over 6000 people.
The other epidemic happening at the same time from 1919 to 1925 was the so-called sleeping sickness or Encephalitis lethargica.
"Eight per cent who got Spanish Flu died. Worldwide that figure rose to at least 50 million deaths. With Encephalitis lethargica 40 per cent of people who got it died," Prof Kaplan said.
"That's obviously very high. What's worse is if they survived, many had lifelong problems with things like Parkinson's and sleepiness personality change, as seen in the Robin Williams movie Awakenings."
He added that while the Spanish Flu killed mainly young men, the current coronavirus pandemic effected older people more severely.
At time of publication figures showed that over 69,000 people had died from coronavirus but Prof Kaplan fears Iran, Italy and China may be hiding the true numbers.
"Coronavirus deaths are not that high but you have to wait to see because a lot of the countries are not putting out true statistics, particularly Iran, Italy and China, where the epidemic is at its worst," Prof Kaplan said.
"It is always the same thing with epidemics.
"The first issue is the governments wait too long before announcing it and taking steps, and that's clearly what happened in China, Iran and Italy.
"And the second issue is when they take steps too late you've got crowded places, poor communication and poor medical facilities."
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Agron Latifi
Wollongong born and bred. I love reporting about the Illawarra region and have been doing it for more than 20 years. I've moved into sport recently after covering the education round for the last five plus years for the Illawarra Mercury. It's been a great pleasure.
Wollongong born and bred. I love reporting about the Illawarra region and have been doing it for more than 20 years. I've moved into sport recently after covering the education round for the last five plus years for the Illawarra Mercury. It's been a great pleasure.
