It's not very often that a sitting MP heads into an election with a swing against him.
That's the issue faced by Liberal Lee Evans who has held the seat of Heathcote since 2011.
It was his third attempt to enter parliament, having run for the Liberals in that seat in 2007 and in Keira for the 2003 poll.
In the 2015 and 2019 elections he had a swing against him in the two-party preferred figures - both opposite Labor's Maryanne Stuary.
Ms Stuart is running against him in the seat for the third time - and the numbers might be in her favour.
There was a redistribution in the seat in 2021, which saw the area from Coledale south to Bulli become part of the Heathcote electorate.
At the 2019 poll, that area fell into the Keira electorate and those booths went strongly for Labor's Ryan Park.
With the redistribution, that creates the odd situation of Labor holding a notional margin of 1.7 per cent - despite not actually holding the seat.
It means without so much as an election corflute being printed, Mr Evans is starting from behind.
Also in the mix is Cooper Riach from the Greens who, like the party's other Illawarra candidates, has been making a strong showing on the campaign trail.
In the last two elections, the Greens vote has remained pretty stable at around 9 per cent, though it remains to be seen whether the move towards minor parties that happened in the federal election will carry over into NSW.
The problem all three of them face is the unique nature of the Heathcote seat.
It's an electorate that is split between two regions.
While the bulk of voters are now in the Illawarra - between Bulli and Helensburgh - there is also a pocket of southern Sydney in the form of Waterfall, Heathcote, Engadine and Loftus.
That creates an electorate with two different geographical groups of voters; where what might be an issue for those in Engadine, will likely not resonate with a resident of Bulli.
Ultimately, Heathcote is the Illawarra seat most likely to change hands in the March election.
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Glen Humphries
I'm an award-winning senior journalist with the Illawarra Mercury and have well over two decades' worth of experience in newspapers. I cover the three local councils in the Illawarra for the Mercury, state and federal politics, as well as writing for the TV guide. If I'm not writing, I'm reading.
I'm an award-winning senior journalist with the Illawarra Mercury and have well over two decades' worth of experience in newspapers. I cover the three local councils in the Illawarra for the Mercury, state and federal politics, as well as writing for the TV guide. If I'm not writing, I'm reading.
