Welcome to our new column, The Debate, where the Mercury sport team discuss the big issues in Illawarra, national and international sport.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
And we start with sports editor TIM BARROW and league writer MITCH JENNINGS analysing the Dragons chances of being an NRL premiership force this season, after last year's campaign where they finished second last.
Baz: Jenno, the 2019 disaster is dead, buried and cremated. Have they put it all behind them?
Jenno: Can only hope so, it was tough for a number of reasons - that I've written about more than enough times. I really did think they needed everything to go right to start this season and that's already not the case with McInnes hurt, Josh Kerr and Korbin Sims as well.
Baz: McInnes in particular is obviously a huge blow, given how hard he worked to try and lift them when the wheels fell off last year. What do you make of their draw? It seems like a really tough run in the opening rounds.
Jenno: Incredibly tough, not sure any side has it tougher. They've got the top five sides from last year in the first eight rounds. They've got the Raiders and Eels away in rounds three and four and then they've got the Rabbitohs, Roosters and Storm back to back to back in rounds 6-8.
Their first two games at home against the Tigers and Panthers are absolutely crucial, as is the Warriors in Wollongong in round five. Don't know if it will satisfy fans or amount to the numbers Mary supposedly needs to keep his job, but if they win those three and can jag one of those others and go 4-4 it'll be a really good start.
Baz: It could actually set up their season to be 4-4, if not to make top four, then at least for a shot at playoffs. The Dragons have invested hugely in Ben Hunt and Corey Norman now Gareth Widdop has left. There are few halves combinations more under more pressure to perform, particularly with game management in the close ones and with question marks around how potent the outside backs will be.
Jenno: No other team has two incumbent Origin players in the halves. When you let that sink in it seems crazy that the halves would be a question mark area for the Dragons but it undoubtedly is. Normy in particular has been pretty frank about his need for a big season on the back of two admittedly poor ones. He started last season so strongly as well, I really thought him copping a broken cheekbone was the turning point.
They never really got it back on the rails. Game management and consistency have always been the challenge for both, but they need to find it given the club's put all their chips on them for this season and beyond. Certainly they're both at that 'now or never' stage when it comes to entering that top echelon of playmakers.
Baz: Agree, Norman needs to provide more diamonds and fewer rocks in games and Hunt has to prove he can perform in the really big moments. Flagging it early and declaring Zac Lomax at fullback was an outstanding move from Paul McGregor though.
I've always believed Matt Dufty has talent, but he's had enough chances. The coach knows he's under pressure, this gives Lomax the time to find his feet in the position he wants to play. And now Brayden Williame offers an alternative outside back.
Jenno: Mary's said that was about bringing some certainty to the spine and it's not hard to see why. The whole Widdop, Norman, Hunt, Dufty on the bench experiment had a lot of moving parts last season and it pretty clearly didn't work. To be frank, Aitken and Lafai were entitled to feel some pressure. Both were well down on form last season and are both off-contract. I think that's why he's been willing to give Wiliame a crack. I think the back five in general has been a big headache for Mary. Throw McInnes back in and the Dragons forward pack can match it with most, but I think - on paper- the men 1-5 are the reason most are writing them off.
Baz: I really hope Jordan Pereira fulfills his potential, he seemed to lose confidence and then had that horror injury while playing NSW Cup. The Dragons had Brett Morris and Jason Nightingale on the wing when they won a premiership and they're a million miles from finding that kind of certainty and strike. The other big concern for me is how they fix their defensive problems without Jack de Belin and Korbin Sims and McInnes injured. How much of a role can Trent Merrin play there?
Jenno: Interesting you bring up Merrin, he simply must have a big impact now. When the Dragons went well in 2018 they were dominating sides through the middle and Mcinnes and de Belin were the absolute glue - particularly in defence. With them there, Merrin and Isaac Luke would have been a nice complement - at a bargain price. Now, they're going to need to turn back the clock, especially Mez with Sims missing for round one. He's all but admitted he never should have left, McGregor needs him to go well.
Baz: Gee, we're starting to find some holes in their plans. On the upside, the pack at their best with Tyson Frizell, Tariq Sims, James Graham and Paul Vaughan, McInnes back in and if Jacob Host and Josh Kerr find another level, it should carry them a long way.
Jenno: The forward pack is their biggest strength no doubt. The roster itself is definitely good enough to play finals footy, what's concerning is only McInnes, Vaughan and Frizell were at or near their best last season. It leaves a whole bunch of guys needing to produce dramatic form turnarounds from last season, not just one or two. Get them all firing though, and the top eight is well within reach.
READ MORE: Tough draw no concern for Dragons: Vaughan
Baz: So, let's lay it on the line. Where do you have the Dragons finishing and who makes up your top eight? I'll go first. Dragons will be in the group of teams chasing the last couple of finals spots with the likes of Manly, North Queensland, Parramatta, Penrith, Wests and the Bulldogs. My top eight: Rabbitohs, Roosters, Knights, Storm, Raiders, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons.
Jenno: Agreed on the Dragons, reckon they'll be in that peloton chasing the bottom four spots of the eight. Of that group you've listed in that bunch I'd nudge the Eels into top four reckoning. In no particular order, my top four is Roosters, Rabbitohs, Storm, Raiders. I have the Eels in contention to possibly unseat one of them and I think the Sea Eagles will get there to. If the race for the remaining two spots was a quaddie leg I'd have a lot of selections, but I'll go with Cowboys and Dragons.
