Welcome to The Debate, a column where the Illawarra Mercury team dive into major issues in the region, or in Australian or international sport. This week, it's NRL season kick-off and sports editor TIM BARROW and league writer CAMERON MEE analyse St George Illawarra's finals prospects, argue about who makes the top eight and make some bold predictions along the way.
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Barrow: We're back, baby! We've had plagues and floods but nothing can stop rugby league. Anthony Griffin has already been handed the extra year on his contract before a ball has been kicked in anger and Dragons fans have high hopes after winning the Charity Shield for the first time in a decade. So, let's have it, straight from the outset, will they make the top eight?
Mee: Yes they will. I've always been slightly more optimistic about this St George Illawarra side than many others and I expect those forecasting the Dragons to win the wooden spoon will be way off the mark.
This isn't a side that we should expect will contend for a title, they're almost certainly not a top-four team. And there will certainly be bumps along the way. There always is when you're attempting to nurture a nucleus of young and emerging talent like Jayden Sullivan, Talatau Amone, Tyrell Sloan and the Feagai twins. But if that group can show they are on the path to stardom and the veterans around them stand up, this is a side that should be fighting for sixth, seventh and eighth.
It seems like we've said this every year for the past five years, but plenty of pressure lands on Ben Hunt's shoulders. With a beefed-up forward pack in front of him, is this the year the halfback leads the team to on-field success?
Barrow: He's running out of chances, Ben Hunt. I've always been a fan of him as a player, but he's never shaken off the perception of how he performs in the really big games. The query for me with the Dragons is Griffin seems to have a lot of puzzle pieces to make fit to be a contender.
Sloan, Amone and Sullivan will all benefit from their NRL experience last season and I think Jaydn Su'a is a smart buy, but they've got to get the most out of some of the older heads in Andrew McCullough, Josh McGuire, Aaron Woods, a fit-again George Burgess, Moses MBye, Jack De Belin and Tariq Sims.
Tom Trbjoveic could tear the NRL apart
- Tim Barrow
There are a few question marks about how it all comes together which concerns me. I look at it this way, I've got the Roosters, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Storm and Sharks locked in the top eight and fighting for top four spots. Then the Rabbitohs and Eels still in the mix.
That leaves precious little room for a finals spot and the Dragons, Knights, Titans and Raiders are probably all in that middle pack. Dragons might just miss out. I cannot see any of the bottom five clubs from last year charging up the ladder, the Bulldogs have bought well, but still a question on Jake Averillo partnering Penrith premiership player Matt Burton and their trial form against Cronulla was awful.
Just touching on Sims, how does he fall from being one of NSW's best in last year's State of Origin series to having his position and future in doubt at the Dragons this season?
Mee: It feels like the Cameron McInnes saga all over again doesn't it. At 32, Hook has decided Sims best is behind him and the time is now to look to a long-term option in the second row. Jaydn Su'A could well be that man.
On face value, it's a judgement that makes sense, but it also ignores the fact Sims is playing some of the best footy of his career, is a local junior and starred for NSW last year. The Gerringong talent wasn't asking for a monster extension, he simply wanted to continue playing for the club he grew up supporting.
It's a move that threatens to backfire for Griffin. Either it will prove an astute decision, Sims struggling to recapture his best form at a different club. Or it will develop into a repeat of the Luke Lewis scenario.
A Penrith hero, he was forced out of the Panthers by Ivan Cleary, in his first tenure as coach of the club, ultimately linking up with the Sharks in 2013, where he helped deliver their breakthrough premiership in 2016 and he was still good enough to play for NSW and Australia in 2014 and 2015.
At the right club, Sims could easily enjoy further team and individual success throughout the final few years of his career.
This situation does raise an interesting question though. Griffin has totally overhauled the Dragons forward pack, McCullough, McGuire, Woods, Burgess, Molo, Su'A all arriving over the past year. Some of those players are clearly stopgap measures, others, it's hoped will be long-term stars. Are Molo and Su'A the future of the club? And what does Griffin do with the hooker position once McCullough moves on?
Barrow: I'll never understand why they let McInnes go so easily. Whatever the rationale, it still staggers me he was allowed to walk. McCullough has always been a handy, serviceable player, but at 32, he's in an era where the rules are built to make the game quicker, especially around the play-the-ball. Jayden Sullivan spent some time at dummy-half last year, but would have designs on partnering Talatau Amone once Hunt finishes up.
The Dragons have bet on short-term answers to filling gaps around emerging players, it's a risk and reward situation which could well define whether they make the eight. Right let's lay it on the line, who wins the premiership and who finishes last? I'll even go first, Sea Eagles for me, Tom Trbojevic could tear the NRL apart this year. Tigers for the spoon, could be ugly.
Mee: It's a tough one, but I'm going to put the Storm on top. I just see the Craig Bellamy machine rolling on for another year and a healthy Ryan Papenhuyzen could prove the difference. I've got the Cowboys to finish last. They've been in the wilderness the last few years and Todd Payten seems to have struggled to connect with his players.
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