Gareth Ward's chance of holding on the the seat of Kiama has increased on Tuesday, as votes continue to be counted.
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On Tuesday morning, Labor's Katelin McInerney remained ahead after preferences - but her lead had narrowed to less than 600 votes.
On a two-candidate preferred vote, Ms McInerney had 50.88 per cent, while Mr Ward had 49.12 per cent of the vote.
The Nowra pre-poll is yet to be included in the virtual tally room, but sources say those votes there will go Mr Ward's way and any remaining postals are also likely to boost his vote.
Sources say he will take the seat by a narrow majority after preferences, with just over 50 per cent of the vote.
Even ABC election election guru Antony Green has all but confirmed the win, saying the result means "Labor can't reach a majority".
The nail-biting count continues as Mr Ward attended court on Tuesday to formally enter pleas over the historical sexual and indecent assault charges which have been hanging over his head for the past year.
On March 22 last year, Mr Ward was charged with three counts of indecent assault, one count of sexual intercourse without consent and one count of common assault.
Police allege he indecently assaulted a 17 year old boy at Meroo Meadow in February 2013 and sexually assaulted a 27-year-old man in Sydney in September 2015.
He entered not guilty pleas in the Local Court in August and was committed to stand trial in the District Court, where he was arraigned on Tuesday.
He formally pleaded "not guilty" five times as he faced court in Nowra.
Mr Ward has been on bail since the charges were laid and has continued to strenuously deny any allegations.
The allegations led to him being suspended from both the Liberal Party, in 2021, and when he was chanrged her was suspended from state parliament last year.
Despite this, Mr Ward retained a significant amount of support running as an independent at Saturday's election.
During the campaign, sources from his camp said polls in the lead up to the election showed he would easily win, however Ms McInerney's long and effective grassroots campaign significantly increased Labor's primary vote and made the race much closer than expected.
Local business owners said Ms McInerney, a Kiama local who moved back home from Sydney to raise her family, had been visible and active during her months on the campaign trail; they believed there was a sentiment shift towards her and the Labor Party in the lead up to the vote.
The Liberal Party's last minute decision to stand dumped MP Melanie Gibbons in the seat also played a role in splitting the conservative vote.
If Mr Ward does win, the ongoing court case means there could be more uncertainty over Kiama's representation, with talk in the lead up to the election indicating he may remain suspended from parliament.
In the lead up to the election, both Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns said they would not accept his vote if they needed it to form government, and also pledged to continue his ban in parliament until the criminal proceedings are finalised.
Mr Ward has questioned what the attempt to keep a recently elected MP out of parliament says about the presumption of innocence.
"How dare the major political parties tell our electorate who they can and can't elect, and I don't think they're going to get their way," he said last week.
Kate McIlwain
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
