There was a time you might have said the Dragons head-coaching gig was Jason Ryles' to lose. These days, it's flipped to the point the Ryles is the Dragons' to lose.
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The former Dragons prop is occupying the spot in which the likes of Cameron Ciraldo, Craig Fitzgibbon and Adam O'Brien sat - the next NRL 'coach in waiting'.
That he's considering the Dragons basket case should be cause for celebration among the Red V faithful. It is for some, but there's also that same element wedded the 'outsider' complex.
Mmmm... so how did that work out?
Nevertheless, there are still those who cling to the thinking like their favourite Wayne Bennett-shaped toy. That the other present candidates for the job are former Dragons Ben Hornby and Dean Young is sending that base into a spin.
That any of them should be disqualified from the role purely because they've worn the jumper is patently absurd. The three of them would appear on any shortlist at any NRL club looking for a new coach.
Given how bare the cupboard was the last time the club went looking for a new coach, it's a welcome conundrum for the board.
As far as that goes, Ryles' position at the top of that list comes down to resume. Simply put, it doesn't get any better. He began his career at the Storm and was there, alongside O'Brien, through a hugely successful era.
This columnist spoke to both in the sheds following the Storm's 2017 grand final triumph and they were already sounding like head coaches.
"To watch the likes of Jesse [Bromwich] and Nelson [Asofa-Solomona] really improve over the last two years has been great," Ryles, then the Storm forwards coach said.
"Guys like Kenny Bromwich and Dale Finucane and those guys have really matured into good footy players as well. They work so hard and it's really satisfying to see them grow personally as men and as footy players and get the result they deserved."
On his head coaching prospects:
"Timing's everything in footy, I've been part of three out the last four grand finals with the Storm now, so I've really been very fortunate," he said.
"I know what I want to do eventually but there's a lot of time between now and stepping into that sort of role."
Is five years enough? He seems to think so.
Those comments, though they weren't given as such, could form part of any job interview. Since then it's only been bolstered by time in the English Rugby set-up and most recently that other great coaching school at the Roosters.
It's produced Craig Fitzgibbon and, before that, the late Paul Green. O'Brien also passed through there before leaving on poor terms to take the Newcastle.
Penrith is now emerging in that class, with Trent Barrett parlaying his time at the foot of the mountains into two head coaching gigs, albeit unsuccessful ones. Ciraldo and Andrew Webster, currently doing a fine job remaking the Warriors, are also graduates of the system.
Even Wayne Bennett, for all his success, once had a reputation for stinking up joints on the way out has overseen successions for Jason Demetriou and is in the process of doing so with Kristian Woolf. Hornby's also well regarded following his stint at Redfern.
Still, of all of them, no club creates coaches quite like the Storm. On sheer number of graduates progressing to the level of NRL head coach is unmatched.
Is it the best school? It's been seen as such for a long time. The actual results have been mixed, but thinking it was just going to churn out Bellamy clones would be a very flawed idea.
It is worth taking a look over the more prominent graduates and just how they've fared.
Brad Arthur:
Took Bateman's Bay Tigers teammate O'Brien with him when he headed south to coach to Storm 20s.
His most Bellamy/Storm like trait has come in his ability to turn average first graders into very good ones.
Clint Gutherson has gone from Manly discard to club captain and Origin player. Isaiah Papali'i was average in an average team at the Warriors and became one of the most damaging edge back-rowers in the game at the Eels.
Ditto Shaun Lane - 48 games in four seasons at the Bulldogs, Warriors and Sea Eagles, to key edge man at the Eels. The Bulldogs have spent a tonne of cash buying back one of their own castoffs in Reed Mahoney after he became one of the game's best No. 9s at Parra.
Has rebuilt the Eels from basket case to contender, albeit without claiming the ultimate prize. He now looks to be drifting further away from that amid talk about premiership windows and all the rest, but however he finishes up, the club will be better for his stint.
Michael Maguire:
A premiership-winner.
Enough said, but still, took the Rabbitohs to their first premiership in 43 years in 2014 and ushered an era of success that's seen the Bunnies feature in nine of the last 11 years - not to bestow all the credit.
Struggled at the Tigers, but it appeared a case of a club so unaccustomed to success it wasn't ready for a coach who was. Throw in a Super League premiership and Challenge Cup triumph with Wigan, and he's been an unequivocal success since leaving Melbourne.
The stink of his Tigers departure seems fresh enough to force him out of contention for the Dragons gig, but an elite quality coach nonetheless.
Anthony Seibold:
Excelled early at the Rabbitohs after succeeding Maguire, enough for Brisbane to launch an extraordinary poaching raid to the tune of a five-year deal that proved an unmitigated disaster.
That in itself is a cautionary tale for any club going all-in on an unproven coach - one might even call the myriad of clauses inserted in similar deals these days "The Seibold Clause."
Like Ryles, Seibold has spent time working with Eddie Jones in the English Rugby set-up and has been given a second chance at Manly where the jury remains out.
Adam O'Brien:
Has a resume not too dissimilar to Ryles in that he came through Melbourne and then shifted to the Roosters. He left acrimoniously to take the Knights job following the departure of another Storm product in Nathan Brown.
The jury remains out.
Nathan Brown:
Still held up by some as the poster child for why the Dragons shouldn't promote their own but, right now, Red V fans would kill for the results he got in his six years as a young coach.
Spent eight years between time at the Storm and the Super League before getting his next gig with the Knights that saw two wooden spoons and two 11th place finishes. His stint with the Warriors was a marriage of convenience in tough circumstances that ended the way most of those do.
All told, a better coach than his resume suggests, but his pre-Melbourne career was far more successful.
Kevin Walters:
Passed over in favour of Seibold ahead of the 2019 season and subsequently the saviour when that decision went tits-up.
Despite a fade-out of finals contention last season, has the Broncos firing enough to be in premiership contention just a year later.
The moral to the story?
No one has a crystal ball. All club boards have to make their call without one. They can only do so based on the information at hand. In that vein, the information on Ryles' suitability is the most compelling. He's KICKOFF'S pick.
Either way, the choice between the three is far more enviable that what the Dragons had the last time around.
There are still plenty who feel an experienced coach - like Griffin was - is a must. Premiership-winners Shane Flanagan, Michael Maguire and Des Hasler have appeared on longer lists.
Flanagan's situation is a unique one and, rightly or wrongly, he's had a line put through him by certain sections of the Dragons board. Maguire and Hasler would be looking to win a premiership a their third club.
That's something no coach has ever achieved in the NRL era. Bennett went close to a title in getting the Rabbitohs to the GF two years ago, but fell short. Getting lightning to strike twice is hard enough - let alone three times.
(Tim Sheens did win a premiership at his fourth club, the Tigers, across the NSWRL and NRL eras).
The board's choice is a step into the unknown, or an attempt at making unlikely history. You don't envy it, but a step into the unknown seems better than a well-worn path to nowhere.
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Mitch Jennings
Sports writer. Sport is my passion, rugby league my first love.
Sports writer. Sport is my passion, rugby league my first love.
