Kiama is the Illawarra seat to watch in the March election

Really, the fact there is any seat worth watching is unusual for the region. So often the incumbents have such a big margin that it would be a Herculean effort to topple them.

In this election there are two seats where something could happen - and they're at either end of the region.

While Heathcote is in play because of the redistribution turning a Liberal-held seat into a notional Labor one, that takes a back seat to what is offered at Kiama.

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It's a seat that sees an incumbent who won in 2019 as a Liberal, but left the party and became an independent. A seat where the Liberal Premier kept talking about how they were going to win Kiama, long before they even had a candidate in the race.

A seat where the Libs ditched two potential candidates - one after emails surfaced of her telling the Labor leader he had her vote - before parachuting in a choice which surprised local Liberals.

A seat where Labor felt so confident of a win they selected its candidate way back in August last year - long before there was even anyone else in the race.

Obviously the focus of interest is because of Gareth Ward and the sex charges still hanging over his head (which he has always strongly refuted).

Those charges led to both major parties joining forces to ban Mr Ward from entering parliament in March last year.

That left the Kiama electorate being without a voice in parliament for a year. While Mr Ward has said he is still working for the community despite the ban, it's obvious that not being able to enter the chamber, speak on issues and easily lobby ministers and others would be a problem.

While other politicians may have stepped down following the charges, Mr Ward opted to fight this election as an independent - acting on his strongly-held view of the presumption of innocence.

And also perhaps because he loves politics quite a lot. At 16, Mr Ward joined the Young Liberals and running for Shoalhaven City Council two years later.

He got in at the 2004 election, staying until 2012 - including a two-year stint as deputy mayor.

In 2011 he won the state seat of Kiama, riding the wave of disapproval directed at Labor that year.

That win was the first time anyone but Labor had held the seat since its second incarnation in 1981.

From there he became quite a popular local member, actually increasing his primary vote from the 2011 election at the 2015 and 2019 polls.

But the big question on everyone's lips is whether those unresolved charges have any effect on Mr Ward's popularity.

Both Labor and the Liberals think so. Labor announced its candidate Katelin McInerney in the middle of last year.

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While it may have been seen as giving her a long run-in to firmly establish herself, there's also the question of how many in the electorate were paying attention seven months out from the election.

The Liberals figure they're in with a shot; they dropped in last-minute candidates across the Illawarra. But the one with the profile landed in Kiama - Melanie Gibbons.

Those charges of Mr Ward create a big "what if" moment in the election. Without them, Mr Ward wins Kiama again in a cakewalk.

But with them? Well, that's the great unknown at this point.

Mr Ward has done polling and the numbers he got back suggested he'd win the seat - and that may be true.

But it's no guarantee that, when people walk into the voting booth on election day, that they take that stubby little pencil and put a "1" next to Mr Ward's name.

That may be the moment where they have second thoughts - and Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet has done his best to sow the seeds of doubt.

With parliament now dissolved because of the election, Mr Ward's ban is no longer in place. It would need to be reinstated by a vote in the new parliament.

And Mr Perrottet has said he'd be okay with that.

That's a very dangerous game indeed. Were the electorate to return Mr Ward, a decision to ban him again would be seen as over-riding the wishes of the voters.

It would be akin to saying "you got it wrong".

However, with the possibility of a hung parliament, both parties will need to shore up support from independents and minor parties so as to form a government.

If either Liberal or Labor is one vote short of government and Mr Ward is there in parliament, political expediency may win the day over any proposed ban.

While there are five candidates running, really only four are likely to have an effect on the outcome - sorry John Gill of the Sustainable Australia Party but you're not one of them.

It all comes down to the issue of preferences.

The NSW election is run under a optional preferential system, which means you can put a one next to your preferred candidate, number no other boxes and have your vote count.

And no-one is sending any preference votes Mr Ward's way.

The Liberals just want you to vote for Ms Gibbons and no-one else, while Ms McInerney's how to vote numbers all boxes, with Mr Ward the fifth choice.

The Greens candidate Tonia Gray is sending her second preference votes to Labor, which may well end up being a decisive factor in the election.

With Mr Ward now running as an independent and Ms Gibbons in the field, Liberal voters who had previously supported the incumbent may well take their votes over to her.

That would have the effect of reducing Mr Ward's primary vote.

Some local Liberals fear that possibility; that having a Liberal candidate will just split the vote between Mr Ward and Ms Gibbons, leaving the way open for Ms McInerney to come up between them and snatch the seat.

And those preferences from the Greens could really help on that score.

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